With the first phase of the Gaza ceasefire set to expire in the ongoing negotiations this weekend, the central drama is whether Israel and Hamas will move to the second phase of the deal, extending the current arrangement or resuming a brutal war. For Israel, caught up in a web of political, moral and strategic dilemma, the resumption of combat would almost certainly cost thousands more lives, including the remaining hostages.
Ironically, Israel is struggling to live on a deal that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu put pressure on Donald Trump in January, but that Israeli Carte Blanche is leaving with his blessing, effectively, that same Trump is doing so.
This green light was strengthened by Secretary of State Marco Rubio when he visited Israel two weeks ago. Rubio declared that Hamas cannot maintain power.a statement widely interpreted as an implicit permission for Israel to retreat from the ceasefire.
Opinion polls have been shown Most Israelis supported this dealwhich meant ending the war in exchange for all hostages and pulling out of Gaza. But that doesn't mean that Hamas is not going to sit well or get sick by being in charge of Gaza. That is an unbearable result. Still, there is a better way to resume war.
Israel should respect the ceasefire agreement, despite its meaning to tolerating Hama for a while. This is the only realistic path to ensuring a safe return of hostages.
Furthermore, Hamas' resilience is partly the result of Israel's own actions. Netanyahu refused to plan for the aftermath of the war or consider Hamas alternatives, as his far-right coalition partner, who dreams of resettling Gaza, will never agree to a realistic long-term strategy.
Nevertheless, the hostage life must come first.
However, this does not mean that Hamas will remain intact in Gaza. The focus must shift to removing Hamas through non-military means. And this is where the Arab world ultimately needs to step up. Throughout the colonial era, the Arab League has done little to improve Palestinian life, while completing art that denounces Israel. But now, given the high interests, Qatar, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates cannot continue simply to mediate from the bystanders.
Trump's Suggestions for February 4th Regional Arab countries have taken over refugees, which are controversial, but it underscored the good. Gaza is their problem too, and the disaster in the Palestinian situation is about themselves. Furthermore, it is in their interest to end the cycle of war and radicalisation that promotes instability in the Middle East.
The US should urge these states to present Hamas with tough choices. One pass is a massive reconstruction plan for Gaza, which could exceed $100 billion. However, this aid is subject to a transition in governance to Palestinian authorities, and in itself must undergo significant reforms. PA President Mahmoud Abbas is the leader of the staff meeting, last elected 20 years ago.
There must be a clear succession plan, anti-corruption measures, and a revised educational curriculum that promotes coexistence rather than hatred. Gaza security will be maintained by a new framework that includes direct involvement in Gulf countries such as the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia.
If Hamas refuses, the alternative will be strict. It's all about full-scale restructuring aid, continuous maximum lockdowns by Israel and Egypt, and limited humanitarian relief. The Arab League explicitly denounced Hamas and joined the West, conveying the message that Hamas is a major obstacle to Palestine's happiness.
This will increase the pressure from within Gaza. This strategy maximizes pressure on Hamas from within, rather than relying solely on the Israeli army that failed to drive the group away despite a 16-month war. It gives the Palestinian masses a clear choice between continuous oppression under Hamas and the path to a better life. The general notion that Palestinians are being carried to irrational extremism is not necessarily true and should be tested.
If the Arabs did not act, they would implicitly support Hamas' tyrannical rule and confiscate claims against local leaders. But as they stepped up, they were able to pave the way for historical changes in Middle Eastern dynamics and increase credibility on the global stage.
Meanwhile, Gazans wishing to relocate should be allowed to do so, whether in the West Bank or elsewhere in the region, without losing their right to return. This is not a cleansing of ethnic groups, but a humanitarian option similar to how other refugees are treated worldwide.
This approach could destroy the Netanyahu government as members of his government, including Bezalel Smotrich, have openly proposed to sacrifice hostages to continue the war. It is a morally irrefutable stance, and Netanyahu's survival is not an important concern for Israel. There is no moral right to sacrifice citizens for political gain.
Furthermore, once the hostility ends, Israel must confront Netanyahu's devastating failure. October 7th, on national security and governance. The government has hampered efforts to establish an investigation committee by arguing that it must wait until the war is over. This argument clearly encourages another eternal war. Trump should block it, not support it.
This is a moment of truth for all involved. Israel should prioritize hostages and rediscover their strategic bearings. The Arab League should probably do something constructive for the first time in its history. And the world should demand a future in Gaza, which is free of enduring war and tyranny, at the hands of nihilist Jihadi Madmen.
Damperry is a former Cairo-based Middle Eastern editor, London-based European/Africa editor of the Associated Press, former president of the Foreign Publishing Association of Jerusalem, and author of two books. Follow him in danperry.substack.com.
