There is no such thing as choosing to end a war. You can win or lose.
Signing a peace agreement with President Vladimir Putin and leaving the occupied territories of Ukraine would mean a victory for President Putin and a defeat for Ukraine and the United States, which the Russians believe are the main goals of this war. .
This is not actually a war between Russians and Ukrainians, but a proxy war in which Ukraine was attacked simply because it embraced democracy and moved closer to America. This is a war between the free world and the totalitarian bloc that includes Russia, Iran, North Korea, and China. If Putin wins, the entire totalitarian bloc wins, and America and the rest of the democratic world lose.
And that would be a defeat for President-elect Donald Trump. Perhaps if Putin were president in 2022, he would not have invaded Ukraine. But he continued the war and now Trump owns the war.
Losing the war is incompatible with President Trump's stated policy of peace through force. A strong economy, a strong military, and strong words are not enough to implement this policy. It is necessary to show the enemy that we are ready to respond decisively to any attack by the enemy. And most importantly, win the war that has already begun.
The goal of the West is to win this war, and victory can be clearly defined as the fall of Putin's regime. Its collapse will lead to the withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine and the return of occupied territories. It would also mean an end to Russian aggression against other countries, a strengthening of the free world, and a weakening of the totalitarian coalition. And as long as Putin remains in power, none of this will happen.
The goal of overthrowing Putin's regime is both morally imperative and realistic. For the first time since World War II, President Putin has now re-established Nazism as the dominant ideology and political system in Russia.
The collapse of this system is more real than many experts think. As in the case of Bashar al-Assad, they tend to underestimate the weakness of dictatorial power. And Putin's government is becoming weaker day by day. It is running out of resources and losing support within Russia. It could quickly collapse if America does not help extend its existence. And a peace deal that leaves the occupied territories in Putin's hands would do just that.
President Trump now has a hard time ending the war without losing the war, but perhaps he can pause the war by negotiating a cease-fire agreement between Ukraine and Russia. Ceasefire means only a ceasefire, an exchange of prisoners, and free passage of people. Peace and truce are fundamentally different. A peace deal irrevocably determines winners and losers, but a ceasefire could postpone that decision and buy enough time for Putin's government to fall and Ukraine to win the war.
In order for the ceasefire not to work against our country, the final decision on the ceasefire should be left to Ukraine and agreed to unconditionally, and Ukraine should emerge from the ceasefire stronger and Russia weaker. be.
Some argue that concessions may be needed, even if sanctions are lifted, to lure Russia into a ceasefire. But this is not necessary. The Russian military is exhausted and in desperate need of a break. They spent most of their reserves on this attack, hoping that President Trump would cede all the territory he could conquer before he took office. If Russia bluffs that it can continue its attacks indefinitely, the West could see a dramatic increase in Western aid to Ukraine, including support from other militaries, if it does not sign a ceasefire. It must be made clear that there is a gender.
The goal of the West is to ensure that the moratorium does not benefit Russia, as has happened many times. After annexing Crimea and occupying large parts of Donbas, the United States abandoned its commitment to the Budapest Memorandum to protect the integrity of Ukraine and tacitly accepted the occupation of these areas. This weak Western response, combined with high oil prices that helped pad Putin's coffers, made him feel politically and economically strong and ready for another invasion. Ta.
Another stagnation after the successful Ukrainian counterattack in autumn 2022 was caused primarily by the failure of the West to provide the necessary support for the continuation of the Ukrainian military, giving Russia a significant advantage and room to recover from panic. Gave. Most importantly, it gave time to strengthen the front lines in preparation for the next Ukrainian counterattack, mobilize an additional 300,000 soldiers and prepare the production of new weapons.
We are confident that during the next ceasefire, Russia will spend every day building up its military, making it stronger for new attacks. We cannot control it, but we can counter it, making Ukraine stronger and Russia weaker.
To strengthen Ukraine, support must continue and be strengthened. Our goal is to ensure that Ukraine has an overwhelming superiority over Russia in terms of quality and quantity of weapons, which can be easily achieved by exploiting our strengths and Russia's weaknesses. We also need to keep Ukraine's path to NATO open.
In order to weaken Russia, it is necessary to tighten economic sanctions against the Putin regime and not lift them until they disappear. It also needs to increase oil production, thereby lowering the price of oil, Putin's main source of income.
All of this constitutes a peace-by-force policy that could give Ukraine a chance to win the war without resuming military action. If we adopt this policy and Russia realizes that we are serious, the Russian army, demoralized with no hope of victory, will collapse and the Russian people will fight against this senseless war. It could lead to protests and ultimately an end to the war. Putin's government.
Yuri Yarim Agayev is a scientist, human rights activist, and director of the Center for Research on Totalitarian Ideology.
