The choice to pursue reelection as an independent mayor of New York City by Eric Adams is bringing fresh unpredictability into a race involving the potential comeback of former governor Andrew Cuomo (D).
Adams revealed his decision on Thursday, amidst speculation about his absence from the Democratic primary due to the extended duration of his legal challenges which he felt hampered his nomination chances. This move guarantees his political significance until at least November.
While the likelihood of a successful independent campaign remains low, his choice could have extensive implications for other contenders in the race.
“What I see is the chance for strong progressive candidates to rise and truly make an impact,” said Basil Smikle, a Democratic strategist and the former executive director of the party.
Cuomo, who was New York’s governor for over a decade, has dominated the nominations after launching his campaign last month. His prospects of a return to political life have been widely anticipated, especially with the incumbent mayor facing legal scrutiny, which could significantly boost his standing in the race, particularly given his improving public approval ratings.
Cuomo has established a strong lead in votes, riding on the support from the city’s ranked choice voting system used for the elections in the 30s, while other candidates lagged by over 20 points.
Even though Adams faced struggles, he still maintained a reasonably solid base of supporters, allowing him to consistently place between second and fourth in crowded polls. Some analyses suggest this was aided by slightly higher support from Black voters; as well as moderate voters.
Experts noted that Adams’ decision now opens a pathway for another contender, but opinions differ on who stands to gain the most.
Pollster Bradley Honan from Honan Strategy Group indicated that their findings suggest Adams stands to benefit Cuomo’s performance when he is removed in a virtually ranked choice scenario. The ranked choice voting eliminates candidates with the lowest first votes and reallocates votes based on supporters’ next choices, continuing until one candidate secures a majority.
“We already have indications from data reflecting the consequences of Adams withdrawing from the race in terms of ranked selection,” he stated.
The latest Honan survey revealed that the majority of Adams’ supporters would switch to Cuomo in a virtual primary format after the incumbents are eliminated.
Political analysts have noted that such a scenario makes sense as both Cuomo and Adams typically attract moderate voters, unlike the other candidates who are leaning progressive.
Cuomo’s campaign is concentrating on his leadership during what many perceive as chaotic times for the city, with Adams having played the role of the central moderate candidate in the contest.
However, some argue that Adams’ exit from the primary does not significantly shift the landscape, and he is unlikely to mount a serious challenge against Cuomo for the nomination.
State Senator Zohran Mamdani has seen an uptick in voter support recently and seems to be in the best position to become a leading alternative, having already maximized his funding limits for the primary.
Recent polling indicates that Mamdani is the only candidate besides Adams consistently reaching double digits and is particularly energizing young progressive voters, garnering backing from American democratic socialists.
Smikle expressed that Cuomo’s victory appears inevitable yet may open up avenues for a progressive rival against him. He suggested that Cuomo will likely face targeted attacks as a leading candidate.
“Conversely, while this might pose some challenges for [Cuomo], it could also allow Mamdani to make impacts he couldn’t before,” he noted.
Daniel Deiseros, executive director of Data for Progress, stated that the mayor’s choice could benefit New York City Council member Adrienne Adams, especially in the Queens district she represents, which is where Adams previously served as borough president.
He mentioned that candidates have been waging attacks against both Cuomo and Eric Adams, creating “two fronts of war.”
“This eliminates one of the areas they could unify against Andrew Cuomo’s overall enemies,” Deiseros remarked.
Meanwhile, Eric Adams has reiterated his ambition to win reelection despite facing significant hurdles.
Smikle noted that the mayor may still hold some opportunity to engage with average voters outside the primary Democratic electorate. He stated that this decision provides Adams the time to reshape his narrative and seek funding.
Should Adams succeed, winning as an independent mayor of New York City would be a rare event, though not impossible. Michael Bloomberg was originally elected a Republican, then re-elected as an independent in 2009.
In his announcement video, Adams referenced former mayor John Lindsay, who was first elected as a Republican in 1965.
Smikle characterized Lindsay as a moderate Republican and an effective “retail politician” adept at connecting with communities of color that many other politicians, particularly within the Republican party, tend to overlook. He also highlighted Bloomberg’s ample financial resources, enabling him to convey a message effectively.
“He will have the opportunity to rewrite his narrative as he transitions to an independent candidacy, but requires resources to communicate effectively,” he remarked.
Although Adams has claimed he has been running for several months, he has not demonstrated considerable campaign activity, such as fundraising or holding events.
Early voting data also suggests Adams may struggle to make an impact in the potential three-way general election. A poll conducted before Adams’ announcement indicated Cuomo at 43%, with 13% for the previous GOP candidate and Curtis Sliwa also running again, capturing 11% and 13%.
The Hill reached out to a representative for Adams’ campaign to discuss his vision for achieving victory.
Honan indicated that Adams’ choice might be part of a larger objective beyond mere reelection, labeling him “politically toast.”
“What we observe is this strategic maneuver he’s undertaking. It’s not simply an election play where he’s running as an independent,” he said. “Staying relevant is a maneuver [President] Trump would endorse. Trump has no affinity for losers.”
Adams has previously connected with Trump’s circle, attending his inauguration and avoiding criticism, unlike many other Democrats.
“If he engages in the Democratic primary, he’s likely to lose, and his standing diminishes. He would become a political lame duck,” Honan noted. “So, this presents him an opportunity to enhance his relevance come November.”
