After Trump’s boycott and new cancellations, do debates still matter?

Republican primary debates could end abruptly this year.

This week, two Republican debates scheduled to be held before the January 23 New Hampshire primary were canceled within 24 hours of each other.

ABC News and WMUR were the first to move, canceling Tuesday's debate scheduled for Thursday. CNN subsequently canceled the clash, which was scheduled to take place on Sunday.

They had no choice.

Former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley issued a statement Tuesday insisting she would only participate in future debates with either former President Trump or former President Biden.

Given that Trump, the runaway Republican front-runner, has boycotted all previous debates, Haley's position effectively blocked any further debates. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis was left as the only candidate willing to debate before the Granite State primary.

DeSantis responded to Haley's comments by accusing her of being afraid to answer “tough questions” and claiming that she and Trump have “disrespect” for New Hampshire voters.

Former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis attend the CNN Republican presidential debate at Drake University in Des Moines, Iowa, on Wednesday, January 10, 2024. (AP Photo/Charlie Neighborgal)

Beyond the ups and downs in New Hampshire, sharp questions are being raised about whether the debates themselves are becoming less prominent — especially as cable news and social media are becoming more partisan than focusing voters' attention on candidates. In an era of politics that offers less risky options. Note.

Trump has famously refused to participate in any of the previous five Republican debates, and that stance has not hindered his progress toward the nomination in any way.

Meanwhile, the Biden campaign has so far refused to get involved in the general election debates.

According to the Associated Press, Quentin Fawkes, the Biden campaign's chief campaign manager, told reporters in December that the campaign would “review the schedule” once a debate date is available and would “discuss” participation. ” he said.

Some observers believe that even though Trump has expressed a desire to debate Biden, boycotting his opponent in the Republican primary is a convenient way for the president to avoid a conflict in the general election. It has been pointed out that it may be used as evidence.

“I'm really concerned because I think the debate is really important, especially in a general election,” said Steve Scully, senior vice president at the Bipartisan Policy Center and host of SiriusXM's “Briefing.” .

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Scully, a contributor to The Hill, himself said that he had spent 2020 in 2020, until the decision to make the clash virtual amid the COVID-19 pandemic led to President Trump quitting in protest. He was scheduled to moderate the presidential debate.

“My concern is that if Donald Trump doesn't participate in any debates in the primaries, he's going to say to Democrats, 'Well, you didn't participate in the primaries, so we're not going to debate you in the general election.' “It gives it political momentum,” Scully said.

But Trump supporters have strongly objected to the similarities.

“It's ridiculous,” said Hogan Gidley, who served as national spokesperson for Trump's 2020 campaign and is now senior adviser for strategic communications at the America First Policy Institute. “It's like comparing an apple to a car key.”

Gidley added that the two races are far apart, given Trump's overwhelming lead in the polls in the primaries.

“If you're up 50 points, it's a presidential primary. By the way, Joe Biden isn't even discussing his rival,” Gidley said. “When you get candidates from two major parties, it makes sense for them to debate.”

At the root of all these conflicts is a simple calculation of risk and reward.

Mr. Trump's lead in the primaries is so overwhelming that he has no real incentive to force his rivals into making gaffes or give them a chance to show themselves on par with Mr. Trump. Similarly, in New Hampshire, Ms. Haley does not want the late debates to open the door for Ms. DeSantis, who is far behind in the Granite State polls.

Veteran Republican pollster Glenn Bolger argued that Trump is not a particularly good debater.

“President Trump is uneven at best,” Bolger said. “When he's good, he's really good. When he's bad, he's really bad. Why take the risk now? But he'll turn on the generals.”

Gidley, a former Trump aide, predicted that Democrats “probably won't allow Joe Biden to debate.” He can't finish a sentence without stumbling. ”

Democrats counter that Biden is often underestimated as a debater, that Trump spreads falsehoods and that Trump fared worse in the 2020 matchup.

Then there's the larger issue of whether the debate is as important as it once was.

Skeptics point to the speed of news cycles these days.

This can lead to major debates, such as those years when President Ford falsely claimed that “Soviet control of Eastern Europe does not exist,” and when Democratic presidential candidate Michael Dukakis gave an infamously passionless response. They say that moment will be less likely to be decisive. President George H.W. Bush was seen looking at his watch impatiently during a debate with Democratic candidate Bill Clinton on a question about the death penalty.

Remarkably, his performance in recent debates, which has been criticized almost universally as weak, has not caused a major swing in the polls. The clearest recent example is Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pennsylvania), who is still in the long recovery process from a stroke, when he debated Republican candidate Mehmet Oz in October 2022. His stalled performance raised concerns among Democrats, but he won. Regardless of the general election.

But it's clear that arguments can still be important, especially when gaffes occur.

In a clash in the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial race, Democrat Terry McAuliffe said he didn't think “parents should be telling schools what to teach.”

The comments dogged Mr. McAuliffe in the final stages of his campaign and likely helped elect Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R).

Other experts say there is another clear example of how important the debate is. It's Haley herself, who says her rise in approval ratings was largely driven by her strong performance in the first three debates.

Before that, “Nikki Haley was in the low single digits in the polls and was on the back burner,” said Lee H. Hess, director of debate at the University of Michigan and co-editor of a book on the Trump debates. said author Aaron Cole. “We're discussing Donald.”

“She benefited most from the discussions this term.”

The Memo is a reported column by Niall Stanage.