With just under five months until Election Day, a rematch between Joe Biden and Donald Trump appears set.
But is that true?
of RealClearPolitics Betting Average Betting that Joe Biden will be the Democratic nominee has been hovering just under 80% and has been trending downward over the past month. Other candidates with bets around 5% or higher include California Governor Joe Biden. Gavin Newsom Former First Lady Michelle ObamaWith a sitting president and no one in his party challenging him, this is cause for concern. In fact, at this point in 2020, the average bet on Biden isMore than 10 percent higher.
On the Republican side, RealClear betting averages for Donald Trump Over the past three months, the odds of winning have been over 90%. The next highest odds of winning are on a former UN ambassador. Nikki Haley About 2%. This shows that the betting market is confident that Trump will be the Republican nominee. However, the recent court verdicts and convictions have led to a rise in odds.Within one monthHowever, it is unclear how this will affect betting odds.
To bet on an event, you need to bet money. Odds Checker The FTSE 1000-01000 Series works to provide futures prices for each race (as of June 18th). (Note that these numbers are constantly changing as new information becomes available, so today’s favorite may be tomorrow’s longshot.)
Biden is the favorite to win the Democratic nomination (-303, meaning you would have to bet $303 to win $100 if he wins). Gavin Newsom is the next favorite at +1200 (meaning you would have to bet $100 to win $1,400 if he wins). Michelle Obama is a close third at +1800.
On the Republican side, Donald Trump is the clear favorite (-2000), followed by Nikki Haley (+3500). These numbers become meaningless at the extremes, with Ivanka Trump at +16900 and Donald Trump Jr. at +36900.
The decisions on the vice presidential nominees for both parties have further clouded futures prices.
The Democratic side is a mess. Andrew Cuomo (former Governor of New York) used to have odds of +300. He is no longer on the ballot. Most recently, Gavin Newsom is +1400, Susan Rice (former US Ambassador to the UN) is +2000, Michelle Obama is +2400, Biden’s current VP Kamala Harris is +2500, and Gretchen Whitmer (Governor of Michigan) is +2700. The fact that anyone’s odds are so low suggests that the market has no idea who the vice presidential candidate will be. It’s literally a game of chance.
On the Republican side, the odds continue to fluctuate unexpectedly. Currently, Doug Burgum (Governor of North Dakota) is at +400, J.D. Vance (Senator of Ohio) is at +650, and Ben Carson (former US Secretary of Housing and Urban Development) is at +700. Other contenders include Tim Scott (Senator of South Carolina) at +1200 and Marco Rubio (Senator of Florida) at +1100. All of these values suggest that the final vice presidential pick is unclear at this point, and that one of these candidates, or someone else, is likely to be the nominee.
So what exactly do these numbers mean?
Biden and Trump will likely be their respective parties’ nominees, but questions abound. Biden’s disapprovalcoupled with Trump’s legal woesThe futures markets are in turmoil.
Moreover, looking at the general election, the chances that either Biden or Trump will win the election are estimated to be just under 80% — a surprisingly low number for the two candidates who are considered to have secured the nomination.
As for Kamala Harris, her days as the Democratic candidate in November appear to be coming to an end, but that doesn’t mean her Low favorability ratingSurprises certainly do and can happen, but with her futures price stuck at +2500, it seems unlikely she will remain on the ticket.
Given Biden’s age, a vote for him could be interpreted as a vote for the candidate’s running mate. It’s very similar to what happened in 1944. President Franklin D. Roosevelt and running mate Harry Truman. To keep Biden on the ballot, Harris would need to be replaced with a more electable and well-liked running mate.
All these odds and futures are subject to change as new information becomes available. Betting on political elections is illegal in the United States. But these numbers provide information about trends and sentiment that can help inform where the election is heading and, more importantly, how it will end. That’s a safe bet.
Dr. Sheldon H. Jacobson is a professor of computer science at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. Dr. Jacobson uses his expertise in data-driven, risk-based decision-making to evaluate and inform public policy.
