Putin’s Rejection of Peace
Vladimir Putin has turned his back on peace negotiations. He’s attempting to persuade President Trump to give up on Ukraine and create a narrative that suggests the Ukrainian front is on the verge of collapse. However, this is simply not true.
Nearly four years since the conflict erupted on February 24, 2022, Ukraine continues to stand firm. The Russian advances are painfully slow and costly. It’s about time Putin is made to understand that continuing this bloodshed, both Ukrainian and Russian, is futile.
Despite being outnumbered and facing challenges of their own, Ukrainian forces are managing to repel Russian advances and inflict significant casualties on the enemy.
Ukraine’s newly appointed defense minister, Mykhail Fedorov, recently stated that 200,000 Ukrainian soldiers are missing in action. Around 2 million individuals have managed to evade conscription, compounded by Russian attacks that have severely affected the energy infrastructure, throwing Kiev into a frigid state.
Despite these conditions, the Russians are far from securing victory. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte mentioned that Russia is losing between 20,000 to 25,000 troops each month, a figure that reaches levels reminiscent of the upper estimates of Soviet losses during the decade-long Afghanistan war.
The human cost for Russia is immense. For every kilometer of Ukrainian territory, it takes an average of 93 casualties, a trend that has shown little improvement.
Russia’s recruitment efforts are faltering in the face of heavy losses. Kremlin estimates suggest that over 410,000 troops have been lost over the past year, meaning that Putin might soon have to make unpopular choices if he insists on his ambitions.
Having failed to demolish Kiev’s defenses within three days, Russia has now engaged in the conflict longer than it did against Germany in World War II. Its attacks haven’t breached Ukraine’s defenses, and its expansion stalled around early spring of 2022.
In March 2022, at the peak of its strength, Russia occupied more than 26% of Ukraine (including gains from 2014). By April 2022, Ukraine had pushed back its offensive, and the Russian-held territory was reduced to just above 20%. A counter-offensive in late 2022 further shrank this to nearly 18%, with only a small increase in gains since then.
President Putin attempted a renewed effort for control in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions early in 2022 but has yet to fulfill these ambitions. Russia has extended its goal of securing all of Donbas to April 2026, but this deadline seems unrealistic given its current pace.
Despite committing over 150,000 troops, Russia struggles even to capture Pokrovsk, a goal it has pursued for nearly two years. Meanwhile, it has only just begun its attack on Kostiantynivka, a significantly larger settlement. Major cities essential for taking Donbass, like Slovyansk and Kramatorsk, remain out of reach.
The Kremlin has also faced setbacks in various operations throughout Ukraine. Despite some minor successes, a recent surge near Huryaipore has dwindled since late November 2025, while Ukraine’s counterattacks have liberated much of Kupyansk.
Remarkably, Russia has not adapted its strategies effectively. Instead of consolidating its forces in Donbass, it continues to fracture its efforts across multiple fronts. Putin appears to harbor ambitions beyond just Donbass, reminiscent of past statements suggesting he wants all of Ukraine.
Ukraine has successfully repelled major Russian offensives and is conducting drone operations that target logistical hubs far from the front lines, limiting Russian advances.
However, significant challenges remain. Much of Ukraine’s military infrastructure has been devastated, and supplies of weapons and ammunition are perilously low.
Even with these difficulties, Russia’s victory isn’t just around the corner. Putin seems to believe he can play a long game, stalling negotiations while undermining U.S. pressure and Western military aid. His confidence that he can maintain support from the West while pushing for his demands for war is misplaced.
Ukraine and its allies must ensure that Putin understands this situation through tougher measures and increased costs for Russia. His military and societal structures are already strained. Supporting Ukraine in its defensive efforts, alongside escalating economic pressure on Russia, could potentially shift the dynamic of the conflict, possibly leading the Kremlin to reconsider its aggressive ambitions.
