Despite earlier pessimistic forecasts, U.S. consumers are gearing up to spend significantly on gifts this holiday season, as revealed by a Gallup poll released on Tuesday.
Claims made by various media outlets in 2025 suggested that President Donald Trump’s extensive tariffs could potentially increase retail prices and lead to a decrease in holiday spending. However, the Gallup survey indicates that consumers expect to spend about $1,007 on gifts this year, which is quite similar to the $1,014 predicted in October 2024, and an increase from the $923 spent the previous year.
E.J. Antoni, chief economist at the Heritage Foundation, remarked that while spending the same as last year might seem stagnant, the deeper data suggests this is a positive sign for many American families. Last year, many were resorting to debt to fund their gift-buying, facing high interest rates on credit cards. This year, though, earnings have started to exceed inflation, meaning consumers’ actual purchasing power has improved. Thus, maintaining spending levels indicates that more families can afford to pay cash without accumulating debt, which is certainly a win.
Antoni added that the impact of tariffs on holiday shopping should be minimal. In fact, some groups might even have a bit more disposable income. Initially, most of the tariff costs were shouldered by foreign exporters and middlemen, with domestic producers benefitting from increased business. Essentially, even though some costs have trickled down to consumers, the overall influence on holiday spending is likely to be very limited.
The poll also revealed that 56% of respondents plan to spend about the same as last year on holiday gifts. Meanwhile, 19%—slightly above the long-term average of 14%—expect to increase their spending, while 23% anticipate spending less.
Interestingly, of those surveyed, only 18% of lower-income Americans expect to spend more this year, a drop from 28% in 2024. In contrast, 23% of higher-income respondents plan to spend more, while middle-income responses have stayed consistent.
Alfredo Ortiz, CEO of the Job Creators Network (JCN), stated that the new Gallup survey reflects a strong consumer sentiment in the U.S.
He noted that the data aligns with what is already apparent on Main Street: U.S. consumers are holding strong, buoyed by controlled inflation, lower gas prices, and tax cuts which have put more money in their wallets. Despite continued media speculation about a recession, Ortiz claims the actual economy is robust and improving, thanks to the pro-growth policies enacted by Trump and Congressional Republicans.
Additionally, Ortiz suggested that tariffs aren’t significantly affecting consumers or small businesses, a sentiment echoed by other surveys indicating that 91% of consumers plan to observe winter holidays like Christmas and Hanukkah. Families with children expect to spend an average of $33 more on gifts this year.
Still, some recent economic data paints a mixed picture. For instance, in August, the U.S. economy added only 22,000 nonfarm payroll jobs, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The Consumer Price Index rose by 0.3% in September, following a 0.4% increase in August.
In light of uncertainty regarding the effects of Trump’s tariffs, several U.S. retailers have started to scale back or delay plans to hire seasonal workers this holiday season. Furthermore, forecasts suggest that the average cost of a Christmas tree could fall between $80 and $100.
The Gallup poll involved telephone interviews conducted between October 1 and 16, sampling 1,000 adults across the U.S. A margin of error of 4 percentage points applies to the overall results, while the spending estimate has a margin of error of plus or minus $78.
