The Rising Competition Between the U.S. and China
Defense analyst Seth Jones, in his latest book, “The American Edge,” argues that the ongoing rivalry between the United States and China represents significant competition. He notes that if conflict erupts over Taiwan, the U.S. could rapidly deplete its long-range missile supply within about a week. This scenario highlights a concerning gap in the U.S. industrial capabilities as China prepares for potential wartime operations.
Jones, who previously served at the Pentagon and is currently the director of the Defense Security Division at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, emphasizes that China is not the economically isolated superpower that the Soviet Union once was. Instead, its economy is almost on par with that of the U.S. and is intricately woven into global production networks. This economic strength fuels military expansions across critical sectors, including advanced aircraft and a massive shipbuilding initiative, which is vastly larger than what the U.S. can currently offer. As he puts it, “The gap is closing.”
In “The American Edge,” Jones underscores the importance of production capacity and technological advancement in the success of major powers during prolonged conflicts. He points out that China’s military arsenal now includes a wide variety of missiles specifically designed to jeopardize U.S. naval and aerial forces deployed far from Taiwan. Consequently, the U.S. strategy in the Indo-Pacific has to focus significantly on stockpiling and logistical throughput.
In a related warning, experts have indicated that China’s strategic positioning around Taiwan could severely disrupt U.S. supply chains. Jones pointed out that, if current conditions persist, the U.S. would run low on essential long-range weapons just one week into a potential conflict over Taiwan. This presents a serious challenge in terms of sustained military engagement.
Interestingly, he notes that while China’s military capabilities are expanding, it does face its own weaknesses, particularly regarding submarine operations. He believes that China has yet to explore all potential underwater tactics, which could present opportunities for the U.S. military during a conflict. Moreover, Jones suggests that U.S. attack submarines, complemented by unmanned vessels, could effectively counter Chinese troop movements or attempts to impose a blockade.
Despite these vulnerabilities, Jones highlights several other challenges China grapples with, such as internal corruption within its military, inefficient state-run defense companies, and the lack of recent combat experience. Nevertheless, these issues do not alter the fact that China is accelerating its weapon production at an alarming rate while the U.S. struggles to keep pace.
Jones emphasizes the urgent need for the U.S. to revitalize its defense industrial base, which he believes is hampered by outdated procurement processes and aging infrastructure. He suggests that similar to how the U.S. achieved remarkable wartime production in the past, a new sense of urgency is necessary now.
The responsibility now falls on the current administration, which is pressing the Department of Defense to expedite the development of essential military capabilities like drones and munitions. Recent initiatives have been launched across branches of the military to cut through bureaucratic red tape to accelerate production timelines. However, Jones questions whether these reforms are enough, arguing that while some progress has been made, a distinct war posture is required.
He acknowledges that certain recent legislative measures could enhance shipbuilding and overall military capacity. Still, he stresses that the U.S. must invest more to adequately address the threats posed by nations like China. As he points out, defense spending as a percentage of GDP is lower now than it was during the Cold War, reflecting a pressing need for increased investment in military procurement.
Another crucial aspect, according to Jones, is the rapidly evolving role of artificial intelligence in modern warfare. He argues that as missile and drone threats escalate, human operators will struggle to keep up. Advanced AI could play an essential role in managing air defense and processing large amounts of surveillance data swiftly.
Yet, he warns that without closer collaboration between the Pentagon and commercial tech leaders like NVIDIA and Google, the U.S. risks falling behind in critical areas of national defense. Instead of narrowing the pool of defense contractors, the focus should be on fostering competition among tech firms.
Ultimately, Jones believes there is still an opportunity for the U.S. to restore its industrial strength, but this must happen quickly. The ongoing competition with China reflects an urgency that demands immediate action, as the Biden administration asserts its commitment to national security reforms.
