Government Shutdown and Public Opinion Shift
As the closure of the government nears the one-month mark, anxieties are rising due to Republican resistance to Democratic requests. However, recent polling indicates an unexpected change in public sentiment.
According to data analyst Harry Enten from AP-NORC and CNN, the poll results reveal that Republicans may have more to gain in this Senate conflict than previously thought.
He noted, “This is actually the worst position Democrats have found themselves in regarding the popular vote at this stage of midterm elections with a Republican president over the last two decades.”
Enten’s analysis showed an uptick of 2 points in the overall popularity of the Republican party. “It’s within the margin of error, yet it’s not trending downward,” he commented.
Furthermore, since the shutdown began, approval ratings for Congressional Republicans have increased by 5 points.
Interestingly, one might think that the government shutdown would tarnish the Republican image—after all, they control both the House and the Senate. Surprisingly, that’s not what’s happening.
Enten explained that the shutdown has not only invigorated the Republican base but has also positively influenced independent voters.
“There are dynamics where something might unite the middle class while distancing them from the party base—or vice versa. But right now, we’re seeing the Republican brand gaining traction both among independents and Republicans,” he noted.
Looking ahead to the 2026 midterm elections, Enten also pointed out a rather unfavorable position for Democrats. Although they still have the lead in general legislative votes, their advantage is now a mere 3 points, a significant drop from the +11 points they held at this time in 2017, prior to the 2018 midterms.
“In fact, this is the worst popular vote position for Democrats at this point in a midterm election with a Republican president in the last 20 years,” he reiterated.
“So again, what could possibly prompt the Republican Party to back down now?” he asked again, clearly emphasizing the challenge ahead for Democrats.
