After a nor'easter arrives on the U.S. East Coast this weekend, an active weather pattern will once again bring powerful storms to the eastern half of the United States, producing a variety of severe weather conditions.
Snow, heavy rain, damaging winds and severe weather are all in the forecast as the storm moves from the central United States to the Great Lakes, the FOX Prediction Center said.
The storm has already begun to develop in the Rocky Mountains and will rapidly intensify as it moves into the plains. By Tuesday and Wednesday, the storm will reach its peak strength, bringing impactful weather from the Southeast to the Northeast.
“We talked about this at the end of 2023,” said FOX Weather meteorologist Britta Merwin. “We've had so many discussions here at FOX Weather that we're forced to change the pattern. Welcome to the pattern change. This is a validation of that prediction.”
There is a high possibility of snowfall, but the amount of snowfall is unknown
Snow appears most likely across the Central Plains starting late Sunday. The heaviest snow is expected to fall in the Great Lakes on Tuesday, according to the FOX Prediction Center.
“The timing now could have a big impact on places like Chicago, Kansas City and Detroit as we head into next Tuesday,” Merwin said. “So this is a remarkable piece.”
Winter storm warnings are already in effect for parts of at least seven central U.S. states, from New Mexico to Iowa.
The Northeast may also see a little more snow on top of what will fall during this weekend's nor'easter, but most of it will fall in northern New Hampshire and Maine.
Exactly where and how much snow will fall remains unclear and will become clearer as the event approaches.
“This region had a little bit of winter last year, but we haven't seen any real winter weather this year,” Merwin added.
Heavy rain can cause flooding
According to the FOX Prediction Center, southerly winds from the Southeast to Northeast could bring several inches of rain, making those areas too warm for snow.
Areas that received the most snow from this weekend's storm will be of particular concern. Further heavy rain falling on top of rapidly melting snow can cause flooding.
Forecasters are particularly concerned about New York's tri-state area, where there are already signs that flooding is very likely during the midweek hours.
Forecast models indicate that showers and thunderstorms will produce at least a half inch of rainfall per hour, with the potential for flash flooding.
Flood watches could be mandated next week for counties in the area being watched.
This is the first time since the flood warning product began operations in 2023 that NOAA's Weather Prediction Center has issued a moderate risk zone five days before an event.
Stormy weather is expected in the south
The FOX Prediction Center said impressively strong wind shear caused by strong twisting winds aloft should easily produce severe thunderstorms near the Gulf Coast on Monday.
There is still uncertainty about how quickly and how far the abundant low-level moisture can return north from the Gulf of Mexico to parts of Texas and the lower Mississippi River basin. The higher the humidity, the more likely severe weather will be.
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has already issued a Level 2 out of 5 risk rating for Monday due to the possibility of severe weather for parts of the east coast of Texas., From Houston to Louisiana, southern Mississippi and Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle.
“Early signs from the Storm Prediction Center are always worth a great deal of respect as they are a good indicator of trends in the forecast,” Merwin said.
Given that very strong wind shear is expected, supercells and storm lines that can cause both tornadoes and wind damage appear likely.
The FOX Prediction Center said the severe threat could continue Tuesday as far east as Florida, parts of Georgia and the Carolinas.
Strong winds possible
The storm's size and low pressure will create a large wind field capable of producing damaging wind gusts from the Plains to the East Coast. Winds will likely be strongest in the Northeast and will come screaming out of the south on Tuesday.
Details are still being determined, but the FOX Forecast Center said the winds are so strong that widespread power outages are possible on Tuesday and Wednesday.
