Are the Oklahoma City Thunder an NBA championship contender already?

Before the season begins, SLAM Magazine publishes an issue featuring the Oklahoma City Thunder's starting five players (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Lou Dort, Jaylen Williams, Chet Holmgren, and Josh Guidy) on the cover. did. The magazine writes in its description:[T]The Thunder have built a dynamic team that is better than many expected. ”

After 35 games, the Thunder have a record of 24 wins and 11 losses. This record puts the Thunder in third place in the West and gives them the second-best odds to win the NBA title. some predictive models.

The Thunder are better than anyone realistically expected going into the season. But just how good is this fun young group? Are they just a bunch of enthusiasts eager to prove themselves in the regular season? Or are the Thunder ready to compete for an NBA title right now, even without a trade boost?

Why the Thunder are contenders

Typically, There are three forms of NBA candidates.. They are either 1) elite offensively, 2) elite defensively, or 3) balanced on both sides of the ball. As a team that ranks 4th in offensive rating and 10th in defensive rating, the Thunder theoretically fit into that third category.

The Thunder's offense is mainly driven and kicked. They are No. 1 in drives per game by a pretty large margin, and Charlotte is No. 2. He outscores the Hornets with 6.6 drives per game.

However, while their attacks seem simple in theory, the snake's large number of different heads maintains its virulence. Anyone who watched Thunder basketball this year knows how good of a driver Gilgeous-Alexander and Williams are. But they're not the only players in Oklahoma City who can tango. Guys like Giddy, Dort, Holmgren, Vasilije Micic, Aaron Wiggins, and Kason Wallace all average at least two drives per game (as does Tre Mann, but he doesn't factor into the rotation much). (not).

Having all of these players on the roster who can drive the ball is huge as it gives the Thunder a consistent touch in the paint. This is important because when a player gets into the paint with the ball in his hands, the defense is forced to collapse, which creates an open catch-and-shoot 3-point opportunity (this is part of the equation). This is the kick part)).

On paper, the Thunder don't have many great shooters touted (other than Isaiah Joe). precious to this year's team). However, they can create the benefit of open threes thanks to their ability to continually collapse defenses. According to NBA.com, the Thunder are tied for third in wide-open 3-point attempts per game (22.9). It doesn't matter whether the shooter is good or bad. If you're taking that many open threes, you're going to be hitting a lot of open threes. And not only did the Thunder take a ton of those shots, they took them at the highest percentage in the entire NBA (39.7 percent).

A staple of the Thunder offense is the ghost screen. This is where a player sprints toward the ball handler as if trying to set a screen, then immediately slides the screen and flares out to the three-point line. like this:

This play is difficult to deal with. Because if you don't perfectly communicate your coverage as a defenseman, you'll either give the offense an easy runway to the rim (first clip in the montage above) or you'll end up taking lightly contested 3-point shots. This is because it will be one or the other. (Second clip).

What makes this play even more difficult for the Thunder to defend is that the screener is usually someone who can put the ball on the floor. So if the defense tries to force it off the line after receiving a pass, they only have to attack the title court with their own drive. Their performance of this behavior is so effective that sometimes even threats are made. cause confusion.

Between driving and screening between the guards, the Thunder offense has a lot to deal with. And that's without even getting into Holmgren.

Let's move on to the defensive part right away. But offensively, Holmgren gives the Thunder another shooter to help space their drive-and-kick offense (40.9 percent on 4.3 attempts per game). Don't be fooled by his frail stature. If you try to hide smaller defenders on him, he can punish them with that drive game we keep mentioning.

(Side note: He also midrange game (gives you a flashback to the 1990s Michael Jordan oldies).

We all know Gilgeous-Alexander is a big player in Oklahoma City. When he's on the court, the Thunder rank in the 96th percentile in net rating (per Cleaning the Glass). However, even a good aerobic athlete cannot continue to play 48 minutes in every match. And in the playoffs, the difference between winning and losing is usually how a team performs in the six to 10 minutes it has to play without its superstar.

Fortunately for the Thunder, Williams functions like a lightweight version of Shai when Gilgeous-Alexander is off the court. In the 368 minutes without Gilgeous-Alexander on the court, Williams is averaging 31.9 points per 100 possessions and shooting 62.6 percent from the field (per PBP stats). Williams is only a sophomore and has yet to decide how he will handle the pressures of the postseason (more on that later). But if his performance in the regular season is any indication, the Thunder will be in good hands.

Now, about defense. On the surface, this Thunder team hasn't changed all that much from last year. They are long, versatile, create a ton of turnovers (1st in opponent turnover rate), and play with excessive discipline and effort (3rd in charges). You can even do a defensive clinic around their game. In fact, last season, the venerable Bowser2Bowser basically did just that.

So if they're pretty much the same “achieving” group as last year, how did they improve from 14th to 10th in defensive rating?

As Bowser2Bowser alluded to, last year's Thunder team was severely lacking in the area of ​​rim protection. But now Holmgren is here to strengthen the interior.

He's still a rookie, so his best days defensively are yet to come. But even with those limitations, Holmgren left a big mark on this team. Last season, the Thunder ranked 10th in opponent rim accuracy. This year, they moved up to second place in that category. When Holmgren is on the floor, Oklahoma City is in the 69th percentile in opponent rim frequency and 90th percentile in opponent rim accuracy.

The Thunder have an offense that will definitely keep playoff defenses on guard. And their defense is good enough that they don't need to win a shootout. That sounds like a contender for the title to me. What on earth is stopping them?

Lawsuit against Sander as a candidate

There's clearly an elephant in the room. Thunder is incredibly wet behind his ears. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has appeared in the playoffs twice, but both ended in first-round eliminations. Besides him, only Dort and Joe among the Thunder's top 14 players in minutes have playoff experience. Also, while past playoff experience is not a prerequisite for winning in the playoffs, it is a cause for concern.

In addition to that, Thunder (*knocks on wood*) big injury luck so far. No player in the starting lineup has missed more than three games this season. You never want to see a player get injured, but every team has to deal with injuries at some point. What would this Thunder team look like if he was missing a key piece or two?

There's also an element of shooting luck to this equation. We talked about how this offense can create a lot of high-value shots. But even with that in mind, the Thunder may be shooting right over their heads.

For example, Dort, who shot 34 percent from 3-point range in his career, is currently making 40.9 percent of his shots from beyond the arc. Guidi (career 3-point shooter 30.8 percent) is shooting 37 percent this year. Williams (35.6 percent from three in his rookie year) is hitting 44.3 percent from triple base. What will happen to the spacing on this team once these guys start to cool down?

For example, in the away win on January 2nd, boston celticsBoston continued to leave Guidi open to increase resistance in the paint (look (clip below). Guidi fought back by making 4 of 7 3-point shots. But will he continue to do so under such circumstances? If not, what would the Thunder do?

The significant improvement in the shooting of these players is due to legendary shooting coach Chip Engelland, whom the team hired in the 2022 offseason. But this leap is notable, as is their lack of experience.

Finally, despite the team's length, this team doesn't have a lot of girth. I think this weakness is sometimes overstated (Thunder makes up for it well with its strength and crisp rotation), but it's still a weakness. This season, the Thunder rank 28th in offensive rebounding and 29th in defensive rebounding percentage. What if this team runs into a team in the playoffs that could hurt them badly on the glass?

final verdict

The Thunder have their flaws, but so do the other title contenders.The real question is whether their shortcomings are mediocre enough to put them in the same class as the Celtics and Denver Nuggets (the two clear front-runners), or are they in the same league as the second-class candidates (Los Angeles Clippers, philadelphia 76ersand minnesota timberwolves)?

I went to law school, so I give the most lawyerly answers to questions ever. It depends.

If the Thunder's healthy lifespan ends and their improved shooting proves to be nothing more than a mirage, Oklahoma City will be a contender for the second division. And smart actions will be needed in February to allow them to graduate something further.

But if they continue to play basketball the way they are, the Thunder aren't necessarily need They need to make a trade before the deadline, as they are already poised to compete against the powerhouses for the NBA title this season.