I love the Clemson Tigers.
There was one upset in the round of 32, with Clemson defeating Baylor by 4.5 points.
But that game said more about the Bears than the Tigers.
Baylor’s defense has been a mess all year, allowing Clemson to waltz to the rim on every possession.
Arizona is going to be a completely different beast.
Clemson vs Arizona odds
| team | spread | money line | total |
| Clemson | +7 (-110) | +240 | o153.5 (-110) |
| arizona | -7 (-110) | -305 | u153.5 (-110) |
Clemson vs. Arizona Analysis
(7:09 p.m. ET, CBS)
The Tigers have some schematic advantages in this fight.
They boast an elite transition denial defense that can force the up-tempo Wildcats into the half court, and a disciplined rebounding unit that can keep the Wildcats off the offensive boards.
Additionally, head coach Brad Brownell plans to switch to a 2-3 zone defense if a change of pace is needed, but Arizona’s zone offense is far from elite.
On the other side of the court, Umar Baro is a little slower laterally and could be utilized as a post defender. Meanwhile, Arizona’s guards could struggle to protect the 3-point line, as the Wildcats rank 190th nationally in open 3 rate allowed.
This poses a problem for Clemson. Clemson uses an inside-to-out offense that feeds P.J. Hall into the post, draws the defense inside and kicks the ball out to the shooter.
That being said, I worry that the Tigers lack the two-way size and athleticism needed to compete with the Wildcats.
Arizona has an athletic and versatile pick-and-roll creator and a dominant rim finisher. Chase Hunter, Joe Girard, Ian Schieffelin and PJ Hall are not at the same athletic level as Kylan Boswell, Caleb Love, Pere Larsson and Burro.
Specifically, Clemson’s guards have had a very hard time defending perimeter ball-screen actions, even when dropping or switching actions. The Tigers have allowed the 41st-most points to pick-and-roll ball handlers among college basketball defenses this season.
Clemson’s ball screen covering defense was swarmed by two great pick-and-roll offenses in New Mexico and Baylor, but most of them were lucky. The Lobos and Bears combined for 9-of-47 (19%) from three in the game against the Tigers.
If Clemson allows a few (overdue) triples early on, that should free up a compact defense that Arizona should unleash.
Larson is one ball screen initiator who can ruthlessly exploit Clemson’s backcourt defense. He enjoys a considerable size advantage at 6 feet 6 inches, producing 1.01 PPP (90th percentile) as a ball screen initiator this year.
The Tigers still allowed Baylor to shoot 15-of-30 (50%) from inside, but the Bears looked to mount a heroic comeback late in the game. In terms of pure inside-out offense, the Wildcats are far more reliable than Baylor.
Additionally, let’s not forget that Arizona State ranks in the top 20 in the nation in close range shots allowed, so the inside defense won’t be fully utilized. Stopping Hall inside would ruin Clemson’s elite spacing.
At the end of the day, I don’t think Clemson has the horse to pull off another come-from-behind victory. But considering the X’s and O’s, I don’t feel comfortable putting two possessions with Arizona.
Do you want to bet on March Madness 2024?
Given the huge travel advantage Arizona State has, Clemson travels cross-country to Los Angeles, and the Wildcats are a 100-minute plane ride away. I am confident the Wildcats will advance to the Elite 8.
My biggest handicapping advice for this game is to use Arizona as a piece in a moneyline parlay and pair it with another team you want to win outright.
I recommend putting the Wildcats on the Tennessee, North Carolina, or Houston ticket.
Clemson vs. Arizona picks
Arizona ML as a parlay piece (-305, Caesars)
