Good morning, Asia. Here’s what’s happening in the market:
Welcome to the Asian morning briefings—a daily summary of key stories and an overview of market movements. For an in-depth look at the US market, check Coindesk’s Crypto Daybook Americas.
As Asia kicks off its trading day, Bitcoin is trading at over $104,500. Despite concerns over potential conflict in the Middle East, market movements have remained relatively flat. In fact, data from Coindesk Market shows that BTC has dropped just 2% in the past week.
Analysts are pondering if the current calm in the Crypto Market is a sign of strength or if it might be masking instability underneath.
This week, three new reports from Cryptoquant, GlassNode, and trading firm Flowdesk all highlight similar trends: low volatility, challenging price movements, and decreased chain activity. Retail participation is waning, with movements now largely driven by institutional players, including ETFs and what are known as “whales.”
One notable warning comes from Cryptoquant. In a report dated June 19, they suggest that a drop to $81,000 could occur if Bitcoin quickly revisits the $92,000 support level or if demand continues to falter.
While spot demand is still on the rise, it’s notably below the trend. ETF flows have plummeted over 60% since April, and whale accumulation has been cut in half. New market entrants typically known as short-term holders have offloaded around 800,000 BTC since late May.
The purchasing momentum indicator, which tracks buying strength across major groups, has dropped to its lowest point, indicating a deficit of 2 million BTC in the cryptocurrency dataset.
Conversely, GlassNode provides a slightly more optimistic perspective. They describe the Bitcoin blockchain as “quiet,” with fewer transactions, lower fees, and reduced miner revenues—this might not be a sign of weakness but could reflect the network’s maturation. High-value transfers are dominating, suggesting growing use among institutions and large holders.
The derivatives market is overshadowed by on-chain activity, with futures and options trading volumes often exceeding 7 to 16 times typical metrics. This has led to more refined hedges and improved collateral practices, representing a maturing market structure.
Based in France, Flowdesk presents its own view, emphasizing the flow of altcoins. Their June 19 update characterizes the market as “coiled,” implying readiness for movement rather than stagnation.
They note a spike in tokenized assets, including a 56% increase in trading volume for the gold-backed Xaut, pointing to stability growth and rising RWA activity.
Despite the low volatility, Flowdesk mentions that downturns are not necessarily expected. Nonetheless, predicting the future remains uncertain.
Interestingly, even seasoned traders are on shaky ground. A recent Polymarket prediction gives almost equal chances of Bitcoin either dropping to $90K in June or soaring to $115,000.
What’s clear is that a tug of war is underway between bullish institutional activities and declining retail demand, which could lead to significant price shifts in the Bitcoin market.
In other news:
- BTC: Bitcoin held steady below $105,000 amid a strong influx of ETFs, but resistance reappeared at $105,150, dampened by short-term bearish trends and macro volatility.
- ETH: Ethereum found support at $2,490 after a significant sell-off breached a key level. With geopolitical tensions and macro uncertainties in play, it may have potential for a breakout if it consolidates tightly around resistance at $2,510.
- Gold: On Friday, gold hovered near $3,366, with minimal changes despite escalating geopolitical tensions countering pressure from the Fed’s hawkish stance. The US market was closed in June.
- Nikkei 225: Japan’s Nikkei 225 saw a slight increase of 0.24% on Friday, driven by tensions in the Middle East and economic shifts related to China’s loan prime rates.
In corporate developments:
According to a recent report from Presto Research, cryptocurrency companies feel they are less risky than many might think. They claim that certain financial strategies, like utilizing Bitcoin ETFs, offer lower risk profiles than typically perceived.
For instance, the latest funding round for a crypto strategy raised nearly $1 billion through preferred stock, demonstrating how BTC’s volatility can be leveraged positively.
Moreover, these financial instruments allow companies to aggressively accumulate crypto assets without assuming margin risk, which has been a concern in past collapses.
The true challenge, Presto suggests, lies not just in exposure to cryptocurrencies but in managing dilution, cash flow, and timing effectively.
In another significant move, Semler Scientific announced a bold goal to amass 105,000 BTC by 2027. The California-based company, which transitioned to a Bitcoin-centric financial strategy last year, aims to increase its current holdings substantially over the next couple of years, using a mix of equity, debt, and operational revenues. However, specific acquisition details are still unclear.
Lastly, Semler’s efforts come amid a broader context of ongoing market fluctuations, with their current market valuation sitting below their BTC holdings, which raises questions about their long-term strategy.
