It may not be the Apocalypse trailed by Netflix dramas, but astronomers have significantly increased the chances of a direct hit from the giant asteroid currently heading towards Earth.
According to NASA's Center for Near Earth Object Research (CNEOS), the possibility of a 2032 space rock strike is a somewhat modest name 2024. Calculated to 2.3% – One chance.
Just a week ago, the European Space Agency (ESA) gave the asteroid a 1.3% chance on the day it approached the closest Earth on December 22 of that year. Or, in other words, there was a nearly 99% chance of passing without any problems.
According to a NASA-funded Skywatcher, which discovered it from a Chilean telescope just before the New Year, the object is roughly the same size as about 830 square miles (2,150 square kilometers) ) In the remote Siberian forest that exploded in 1908.
However, astronomers are urging global residents not to panic despite the 2024 YR4 surges to the top of the official impact risk list on both sides of the Atlantic, with an unusual rating of three It has an unusual rating. Turin's Influence Hazard Scale It ranges from risk-free to end of civilization10.
Variations in the likelihood of strikes far from the arrival of objects are common; YouTube videos The ESA, entitled “How to Prevent Asteroids Sweat from Threats,” attacks the planet when the 2024 YR4 receives updated data on speed and orbit in the coming weeks and months. I explain that the chances of this happening will be virtually zero.
The NASA Planetary Defense Coordination Bureau, the US space agency, agrees.
“In the past, there were some objects that ended up falling out as they rose to the risk list and eventually more data came in,” researcher Molly Wasser said. In a statement.
“As new observations bring in more data, this asteroid could be reallocated to zero.”
Colin Snodgrass, professor of planetary astronomy at the University of Edinburgh, told the Guardian last week:
“We'll just get a little more attention with the telescope until we can see that. The longer we follow the trajectory, the more accurate our predictions for the future of that trajectory will be.”
Other recent similar fears appear to reinforce the message.
Discovered in 2004, the asteroid 99942 Apophis, which is larger than the Eiffel Tower, was once given four ratings on the Turin scale, but is ultimately not a threat to the Earth in any of the close paths for the next 100 years. was calculated to. .
However, even if the 2024 YR4 continues towards Earth where there is a high possibility of impact, the success of NASA's DART mission in 2022 would result in the spacecraft being intentionally impacted by a soccer stadium-sized asteroid. It changes the trajectory and gives ground for optimism. For the future of humanity.
“This asteroid has technology and is being tested because missions like DART could be effective when needed,” Snodgrass said.
