SpaceX Stock Facing Potential Declines Post-IPO Lock-Up
SpaceX (SPCX) shares have seen a drop of about 30% since their initial public offering in June 2026, and experts suggest there may be more declines on the horizon. A significant event looms: the expiration of a pre-IPO shareholder lock-up period on August 6, just days following the company’s first quarterly earnings report as a publicly traded entity.
There are around 911.5 million shares that will be available for sale, worth about $116 billion. Further shares might hit the market if certain post-IPO performance benchmarks are met. On a brighter note, SpaceX’s liquidity is projected to improve by the year’s end, with 5.3 billion shares set to become tradable.
A Look Back at Tesla’s IPO Experience
The uncertainty surrounding SpaceX’s lock-up period and its aftermath could be explored by drawing parallels to Tesla (TSLA), another venture by CEO Elon Musk. When Tesla went public at $17 per share in November 2010, the price quickly climbed to around $35. However, it soon fell sharply, losing about 15% when its lock-up period ended in December 2010, partly due to low holiday trading volumes. Those who invested in Tesla during that time eventually saw substantial returns, with an approximate 40% compound annual growth rate over 16 years.
At that time, Tesla was essentially just a car manufacturer, while today, SpaceX aims to be much more than a space launch service. The company has ambitious plans encompassing everything from data centers in space to a broadband service through Starlink and even an AI chatbot through xAI. Rumors have surfaced that Tesla could also join this broad portfolio, which would include electric vehicles and the Optimus humanoid robot.
Thus, while there’s a chance for SpaceX to rebound, it’s essential to recognize that the execution could take time—possibly decades. Still, given the expansive market SpaceX is in, the rewards could potentially surpass those historically offered by Tesla.
SpaceX’s Financial Landscape
SpaceX has demonstrated significant revenue growth lately; it reached $10.4 billion in 2023 but reported a profit of $791 million in 2024 before flipping to a loss of $4.9 billion the following year. Nevertheless, operating cash flow improved, rising from $4.5 billion in 2023 to $6.8 billion in 2025. The company’s solid cash position of $24.7 billion at the end of 2025, coupled with minimal short-term debt, mitigates liquidity risks.
In the first quarter of 2026, revenue saw a more than 15% year-over-year increase, totaling $4.7 billion. However, net losses widened significantly to $4.3 billion compared to $528 million the previous year. Still, operating cash flow rose from $727 million to $1.05 billion, with cash reserves standing at $15.9 billion by the end of Q1.
Capital expenditure has escalated dramatically, going from $4.4 billion in 2023 to $20.7 billion in 2025. Notably, spending on artificial intelligence surged from $463 million in 2023—a modest amount for a new area—jumping to $12.7 billion in 2025, making it the leading investment category. This shift underscores how the company, historically focused on space and connectivity, is increasingly integrating AI into its core operations.
A breakdown of Q1 2026 shows that connectivity remains the largest revenue contributor, at $3.3 billion out of the $4.7 billion in total revenue. The AI segment followed with $818 million, a remarkable figure for a relatively nascent field, while the space segment added $619 million to the total.
Despite recent stock declines, SPCX is trading at a notably high valuation, with a price-to-sales ratio of 82.7x, significantly above the sector’s median.
Analyst Perspectives on SPCX
Analysts generally view SPCX stock as a Moderate Buy. The average price target of $231.83 suggests a potential upside of 101% from current trading levels. Out of 33 analysts, 22 have given it a “strong buy” rating, two a “moderate buy,” eight a “hold,” and one a “moderate sell.”
