- The Australian dollar has moved forward after Trump exempts major technology products, including some from China, from his new “mutual” tariffs.
- RBA meeting minutes showed uncertainty about the timing of the next interest rate movement.
- The US dollar is stable as investors weigh on the weight of male dog concerns.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) will be bolstered for the fifth straight session against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday. aud/usd The pair continued to gain momentum after President Donald Trump exempts major tech products from his new “mutual” tariffs and lifts global risk sentiment.
The exemption covers items that are primarily produced in China, such as smartphones, computers, semiconductors, solar cells, and flat panel displays. This is because China is Australia’s largest trading partner and the leading consumer of its products.
Minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meeting between March 31 and April 1 suggest that the timing of the next interest rate movement remains uncertain. The board noted that the May meeting would be a good time to reevaluate the policy, but emphasized that the decision has not been decided in advance.
Members are particularly concerned with global uncertainty surrounding US tariffs. Outlook. The board also highlighted both the opposite and negative risks to Australia’s economy and inflation.
Australia’s 10-year government bond yield fell to around 4.33%. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has not changed interest rates this month, struggling with a more incredible tone for future cuts, pointing to easing core inflation. The market is currently considering a 25 point reduction in May, and expects a total easing of approximately 120 basis points per year.
Australian dollars are grateful for eroding investors’ trust in US assets
- The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures USD against a basket of six major currencies, has been in high inches since 2022 after reaching its lowest level. The DXY traded around 99.90 and is trying to stabilize as investors respond to male dog growth signs.
- Atlanta Federal President Rafael Bostic said in an early market session on Tuesday that the US Central Bank is on a long road to reaching its 2% inflation target, raising questions about the market’s expectations for additional interest rate cuts.
- The University of Michigan Sentiment Index fell to 50.8 in April, but its one-year inflation forecast surged to 6.7%. The US Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 2.7% year-on-year in March, down from 3.2% in February, and the core rate eased to 3.3%. Jobless’s claims ticked a maximum of 223,000, but continued claims fell to 1.85 million.
- On Sunday, Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neil Kashkari said in the face of CBS that the economic radioactivity from Trump’s trade war will depend heavily on how quickly trade uncertainty is resolved. “This is the biggest hit of confidence that I can remember in my decade at the Fed. It existed in March 2020 when Covid first hit,” Kashkari said.
- The escalation of trade tensions between the US and China has revived concerns about a potential global economic slowdown. On Friday, China’s Treasury Ministry announced a sharp rise in tariffs on US goods, raising it from 84% to 125%. The measure has responded to President Trump’s previous move to raise tariffs on Chinese imports to 145%.
- Inflation in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) was 2.4% year-on-year in March, below market forecast of 2.6% from 2.8% in February. The core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, is up 2.8% per year compared to the previous 3.1%, with a 3.0% estimate missing. Each month, the Headline CPI fell 0.1%, while the Core CPI rose 0.1%.
- Minutes from the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting suggested that policymakers are largely in line with warning that the Federal Reserve is facing “difficult trade-offs” in the coming months, as they acknowledged the dual challenges of rising inflation and slowing growth.
- China’s trade balance in March, measured by the Chinese Yuan (CNY), recorded a significant increase of $73.672 billion, a sharp increase from $122 billion the previous month. Under the US dollar (USD) terms, the trade surplus also surpassed expectations, exceeding $1000.6 billion and above $77 billion, but below the previous $17005.1 billion.
- China’s exports increased 13.5% year-on-year in March, accelerating from 3.4% in February, but imports fell 3.5% year-on-year.
- The general administration of China’s customs office called the current external environment “complex and serious” and acknowledged the challenges facing the country’s exports. Despite this, officials expressed confidence and said “the sky won’t fall.” They reported a solid start to the year, indicating that foreign trade is growing in both volume and quality. The agency also highlighted China’s commitment to counter the actions of the United States and implementing all necessary measures to maintain the sovereignty and security of its nation.
- The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) is expected to implement further currency easing in the second quarter of 2025. This includes a potential 15 basis points reduced to the loan prime rate (LPR), and a minimum of 25 basis points reduction in the reserve requirement ratio (RRR). According to city analysts cited in the Reuters report, there is a growing possibility that domestic stimulus packages will be accelerated in response to external pressure mounts.
Australian dollars rise to nearly 0.6350 due to sustained bullish bias
The AUD/USD pair is trading near the 0.6340 mark on Tuesday. Indicator every day chart It refers to bullish prejudice. The pair exceeds both the 9-day and 50-day exponential moving average (EMA), while the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) travels above the neutral 50 level, enhancing positive momentum.
The advantage is that the AUD/USD pair aims for psychological resistance at 0.6400, followed by a four-month high of 0.6408.
Immediate support is seen with a 50-day EMA about 0.6270, and more support is available with a 9-day EMA near 0.6240. A critical break below these levels could undermine short-term bullish structures, opening the door further downside towards the lowest 0.5914 zone and a major psychological level of 0.5900 since March 2020.
AUD/USD: Daily Charts
Australian dollar prices today
The table below shows the rate of change in the Australian Dollar (AUD) for today’s listed major currencies. The Australian dollar was the strongest against the Swiss franc.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | aud | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.05% | -0.15% | 0.06% | -0.08% | -0.63% | -0.66% | 0.22% | |
| EUR | 0.05% | -0.09% | 0.11% | -0.03% | -0.51% | -0.61% | 0.28% | |
| GBP | 0.15% | 0.09% | 0.21% | 0.06% | -0.41% | -0.52% | 0.37% | |
| JPY | -0.06% | -0.11% | -0.21% | -0.15% | -0.66% | -0.86% | 0.15% | |
| CAD | 0.08% | 0.03% | -0.06% | 0.15% | -0.50% | -0.58% | 0.31% | |
| aud | 0.63% | 0.51% | 0.41% | 0.66% | 0.50% | -0.11% | 0.79% | |
| NZD | 0.66% | 0.61% | 0.52% | 0.86% | 0.58% | 0.11% | 0.89% | |
| CHF | -0.22% | -0.28% | -0.37% | -0.15% | -0.31% | -0.79% | -0.89% |
The heatmap shows the rate of change of each other’s major currencies. The base currency is selected from the left column, and the estimated currency is selected from the top row. For example, if you select Australian dollars from the left column and move along the horizon to US dollars, the rate of change shown in the box represents AUD (base)/USD (QUOTE).
Australian Dollar FAQ
One of the most important factors in the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the interest rate level set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). As Australia is a resource-rich country, another important factor is the price of iron ore, the biggest export. The health of China’s biggest trading partner is Australia’s inflation, its growth rate and trade balance. Market sentiment – Whether investors are taking on riskier assets (risk-on) or seeking safe haven (risk-off) is another factor in risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) affects the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This affects the level of interest rates across the economy. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up and down. Compared to other major central banks, relatively high interest rates support AUD, the opposite of relatively low. RBAs can also use quantitative relaxation and tightening to influence credit conditions, along with previous Aud negative and the latter positives.
As China is Australia’s largest trading partner, the health of China’s economy has a major impact on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). If the Chinese economy is on track, they will buy more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, raising demand for AUD and increasing its value. The opposite is when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Therefore, positive or negative surprises in China’s growth data often have a direct impact on the Australian dollar and its pair.
Iron ore is Australia’s largest export, with China as its main destination accounting for $118 billion a year, according to data from 2021. Therefore, iron ore prices could be a driver for the Australian dollar. Generally, as iron ore prices rise, so does AUD as aggregate demand for the currency increases. If iron ore prices fall, the opposite is true. Also, higher iron ore prices tend to be more likely to be positive for Australia’s trade balance, which is also positive for AUD.
Trade balances, the difference between what a country acquires from exports and what it pays for imports, are another factor that can affect the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces a very popular export, the currency acquires pure value from the surplus demand generated from foreign buyers seeking to purchase the export, compared to what they spend to buy the import. Therefore, a positive net trade balance strengthens the AUD and has the opposite effect if the trade balance is negative.
