Over 90 percent of missiles and drones from Iran are reportedly intercepted by U.S., Israeli, and allied forces. However, experts caution that defense budgets are quietly draining the stockpiles of allies in the region.
A report from the Jewish Institute for National Security of the United States (JINSA) indicates that a significant portion of Iranian projectiles were intercepted during ongoing hostilities.
Still, the analysis highlights an emerging imbalance that could impact future phases of the conflict, suggesting that Iran’s less expensive weaponry presents notable challenges, thereby straining the costly interception systems of the U.S. and Israel.
“We’ve struck down over 9,000 enemy targets so far,” White House press secretary Caroline Levitt stated at a press briefing on Wednesday. “Iranian missile and drone attacks have plummeted by around 90 percent.”
She further noted that the U.S. military has also destroyed more than 140 Iranian naval vessels, including nearly 50 mine layers.
In the lead-up to the war, a boost in U.S. assets helped counter Iran’s initial artillery capabilities, helping sustain a high interception rate. But Ali Sicurel, JINSA’s deputy director of foreign policy, pointed out to Fox News that focusing solely on interception success rates can be misleading.
“While it’s crucial to have high interception rates for missiles and drones, that’s merely one part of a larger picture,” Sicurel remarked. “Iran entered the conflict with a strategic intent to undermine the systems enabling these interceptions.”
He added that Iranian forces have targeted energy infrastructure to disrupt markets while employing cluster munitions to improve strike accuracy.
Meanwhile, Danny Sitrinowitz, a Middle East and national security analyst at the National Security Institute, underscored that this disparity is central to the ongoing issue.
“We need to adjust the balance,” Citrinowicz told Fox News. “The Iranians are deploying drones that might only cost about $30,000, while we’re using multimillion-dollar interceptors. That discrepancy is concerning.”
He further explained, “Building a missile in Iran might run into the hundreds of thousands, especially discussing advanced systems like the Arrow, yet an interceptor can cost millions.” Citrinowicz is also a non-resident fellow at the Atlantic Council.
“Producing missiles is quicker and more straightforward than manufacturing interceptor missiles,” he mentioned. “It’s not a hidden fact.”
According to the JINSA report, a number of Gulf states are utilizing substantial portions of their interceptor missile supplies. They estimate that Bahrain may have expended up to 87 percent of its missiles, while the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait have used approximately 75 percent, and Qatar about 40 percent.
Israeli officials haven’t verified the stockpile figures, yet the JINSA report alludes to signs suggesting rationing, including the decision against intercepting certain threats posed by cluster bombs.
“A few weeks into the conflict, even with limited salvos, the interceptor issue will become increasingly critical over time,” Citrinovich stated.
On Monday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy expressed concern about the implications of a war in Iran, fearing that Middle Eastern nations could accidentally target advanced air defense missiles, resulting in a global shortfall that would disproportionately impact Ukraine.
Iran is reportedly applying strategies from the Ukraine conflict to refine its tactics, shifting from large-scale strikes to smaller, consistent assaults aimed at steadily exhausting defense resources while applying continuous pressure.
These strategies from Iran’s regime complicate the interception timeline and raise the likelihood of successful assaults on U.S. allied forces.
Nonetheless, Sicurel maintained that “the defense framework remains intact.”
“However, the trend is concerning,” he told Fox News. “Addressing this situation necessitates reallocating resources to areas facing the greatest pressure, aggressively targeting Iranian launchers and drones, and ensuring safe passage for vessels in the Gulf.”
Importantly, the JINSA report anticipates an increase in strain on defense systems rather than a complete failure.
“As long as the conflict continues, the critical question is whether Iran can generate missiles faster than interceptors can be produced,” Citrinovich noted.
