Back-to-school spending is likely to remain flat or fall slightly this year as cash-strapped parents, hard hit by inflation, pull back on electronic purchases in favor of value, a new survey finds.
Citing consumer research, Deloitte said consumers could spend about $586 per student from kindergarten through 12th grade, or $31.3 billion.
By 2023, it says, that figure will reach $31.9 billion, or $597 per person.
The cost of school supplies has increased 24.5% over the past four years, according to the study.
“Families are prioritizing value and convenience to hunt for deals and save wherever possible,” Brian McCarthy, principal of retail strategies at Deloitte, said in a statement. “This move creates an opportunity for retailers to alleviate some of the anxiety this season by expanding loyalty programs and incentives.”
About 67% of parents surveyed said they would sacrifice their loyalty if their favorite brand was too expensive, according to Deloitte, which surveyed 1,198 U.S. parents with school-age children.
Consumers are expected to spend $12.6 billion on clothing and school supplies, roughly the same as they will in 2023, while they will spend $8.6 billion on technology products, down 11% from last year.
Middle-income households making between $50,000 and $99,000 a year are expected to cut their spending by 9%, while low-income households making less than $50,000 a year could cut their spending by 4% in 2024.
Meanwhile, Deloitte said in its report that high-income families making more than $100,000 a year are expected to spend 5% more on average per child to $721, up from $689 last year.
Walmart, Target and China-based SHEIN all launched their back-to-school products in early July, earlier than usual.
The companies are vying to take on rival Amazon, which kicks off its annual two-day Prime Day event on Tuesday.
“With summer sales events almost marking the unofficial start of back-to-school shopping, retailers need to have these promotions in place and ready to go,” said Steven Rogers, managing director at the Deloitte Insight Consumer Industry Center.
Back-to-school spending forecasts remained flat as inflation fell 0.1% in June, the first decrease in three years.
