Los Angeles Voters May Consider New Leadership

It seems that voters in Los Angeles are looking to move on from Mayor Karen Bass. But don’t expect them to choose reality TV star Spencer Pratt as her replacement. Just another day in California, right?

A recent poll conducted by the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies for the Los Angeles Times shows City Councilwoman Nithya Raman leading Bass by 39% to 28%, with a significant one-third of likely voters still undecided.

One key point to understand is this: California isn’t hiding a conservative agenda. Nor is Los Angeles secretly a Republican stronghold. Those who are dissatisfied with Karen Bass feel no pressure to vote for someone more conservative as an alternative.

The figures reveal how dire things are for Bass. Almost two-thirds of likely voters have a negative view of her. Throughout the year, she has faced criticism over issues like homelessness, rising housing costs, and her handling of the recent Palisades fire incident.

Clearly, this isn’t a population content with failure. It seems they are wrestling with different ideas for the future.

In fact, Raman doesn’t present a conservative approach at all. She comes from a progressive activist background and has the support of the Democratic Socialists of America. Notably, she resonates particularly well with younger voters.

Bass, on the other hand, has established herself in the political establishment with her previous roles in Sacramento, Congress, and City Hall.

Raman signifies a new direction.

A Democratic voter base can recognize a Democratic mayor’s shortcomings without veering towards Republican alternatives. This concept shouldn’t be overly complicated, but it seems some still struggle with grasping it.

This isn’t the first time I’ve shared these insights.

Back in 2014, following another disappointing election for Republicans at the state level, I penned a column for the Sacramento Bee pondering about how the GOP could gain some traction in California again. My recommendation wasn’t to shift leftward but rather to engage.

Engagement should happen at the neighborhood level. It’s crucial to connect with voters in both English and Spanish. Prioritize local concerns.

As I said back then, “For a minority party to become a majority, it cannot merely oppose; it must propose.”

I also cautioned against a defeatist mentality.

Of course, Republicans faced challenges like being out-fundraised and out-organized. And yes, many in the media were not kind to them. But that’s not the point.

Two years later, after Donald Trump’s victory, I wrote another piece titled “Take California, Please.”

California had just legalized recreational marijuana, elected Kamala Harris, and maintained high income taxes while tightening gun laws. In short, the state stayed true to its values and continues to do so.

At present, nearly 45% of registered voters in California identify as Democrats, while Republicans make up just around 25%. Voters with no party affiliation are about 23%.

Los Angeles, specifically, is very much blue.

Even Richard Riordan, the city’s one Republican mayor in a long line of Democrats, wasn’t a contemporary conservative. He identified as pro-choice, for instance.

The real mystery isn’t why Democrats continue to succeed, but rather why Republicans are surprised by it.

Interestingly, Spencer Pratt seems to grasp this better than many of his vocal supporters. After losing in the June primary, he candidly expressed that Los Angeles had an opportunity for change and instead, voters let it slip.

He noted that many supporters stayed home on voting day, while others chose different candidates. “I told you to get ten of your friends to vote, and you didn’t do it,” he lamented.

It’s worth noting what he didn’t say. He didn’t claim that the election was stolen.

Some of his supporters might have gone that route, but Pratt pointed out a less comforting reality: his fans simply didn’t mobilize enough voters.

Now, an overwhelming 63% of Pratt’s voters from June remain unsure between Bass and Raman.

The discontent with Bass is palpable, but it’s not a push toward conservatism.

Pratt has another thought for Californians: “Vote for governor; you still have a shot.” But yes, it would be a long shot.

Bass holds a rather contrasting perspective. In a recent interview, she claimed the race is all but over, confidently stating, “Our governor’s name is Xavier Becerra. You don’t need an election on November 3. A Republican cannot win in this state.”

This is some bold talk! Yet, California does need elections.

But let’s set aside bravado for a moment and focus on the polling data. A recent PPIC poll shows Becerra leading Republican Steve Hilton 60% to 38% among likely voters.

Those statistics seem familiar—Gavin Newsom defeated Republican John Cox by nearly 24 points in 2018, and four years later, he beat Brian Dahle by over 18 points.

No need for cheating there; those are decisive wins.

I don’t particularly enjoy this reality, but merely wishing it were otherwise doesn’t change the facts. California is not secretly conservative.

California remains predominantly blue, filled with areas of red and millions of conservative individuals.

Pratt’s comments regarding Bass reveal another layer. He suggested that a lack of competition can lead politicians to believe they don’t need to earn votes. By giving them the occasional loss, they might strive harder in the future.

This is an age-old political insight. Competition breeds accountability among parties. Extended periods of dominance can indeed result in complacency.

However, California conservatives have their own uphill battle. Unfortunately, they are a marginalized group.

For decades, Democrats have been building relationships with unions, ethnic communities, and various voter groups. The Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) clearly understand this dynamic and their grassroots efforts reflect it.

Online activism is one thing, but actually connecting with voters is quite another. A viral post doesn’t guarantee votes, as Pratt found out the hard way.

Engaging in politics involves hard work. It’s often dull, highly local, and necessitates numerous conversations with people who may not be receptive at first.

California’s current political reality is clear: it’s not hiding its liberal leanings, and voters upset with Bass aren’t forced to opt for a more conservative alternative.

I mean, it’s okay if people don’t fully embrace California’s politics—neither do I!

Yet before anyone can fully analyze or enact change in this landscape, one critical requirement remains: see the place clearly.