While most congressional seats will not be contested in this fall's election due to partisan apportionment, several are still considered battlegrounds.
And in these districts, which span Arizona, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Florida, Iowa, Nebraska, New York, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Virginia and Washington, the battle for top candidates and control of the House of Representatives is fierce.
A head-to-head poll of 1,503 general election voters conducted by Signal in those districts from Sept. 11-13 found that Kamala Harris (48%) and Donald Trump (47.3%) were separated by less than one percentage point. The results were shared early by The Washington Post.
But Vice President of Polling Brock McCleary said the metrics were encouraging for Trump overall, but the final stretch could be a worry for Democrats.
“Harris saw her approval rating grow after the debate in these battleground states, while Trump's approval rating has remained steady since March. The biggest difference in this data is the approval rating during Trump's time in office compared to the current Biden-Harris administration, which paints a clear path for Trump to win, comparing how voters felt about their situation and the direction of the country when Trump was in office,” McCleary told The Washington Post exclusively on Tuesday.
Indeed, Trump's approval ratings may be a little low overall, at 46% approval and 53% disapproval, but he is still more popular than Biden (41% approval, 57% disapproval).
But while Harris's approval rating of 49% and disapproval rating of 50% are a stark reversal from July's 56% approval and 37% disapproval, McCleary believes this trend “simply shows how vehemently Americans rejected Joe Biden in July, not that they were worshipping Harris in September.”
“The data shows that Trump voters prefer and support Trump as a candidate more than Harris supporters. If Trump can maintain his narrow lead and lower-ranking Republican voters can overcome the negative ad gap they faced in September, Republicans could finish October strong,” McCleary added.
A striking data point that supports this is that by more than two-to-one margins (65% to 30%), voters in these battleground states say America is going in the wrong direction, not the right direction.
Polls also show growing momentum for Democrats in their bid to wrest control of the House from Republicans, but caution is advised here, even as the general congressional vote in 38 battleground districts has shifted from a Republican +3 advantage earlier this summer to a Democratic +1 advantage today.
In total, 21 of those seats are held by Republicans up for reelection, another 15 are held by Democrats and three more are vacant.
Women under 44 are a big reason for this, with 60% of women saying they would vote for a generic Democrat (up 10 points from the last survey) and 27% saying they would choose a generic Republican in a test ballot (which excludes certain candidate combinations).
Women with college degrees are especially favorable to seeing a typical Democrat in Congress, with 65% saying so, while only 30% say the same about a typical Republican.
