On June 21, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, who has been in power since 1994, set free 14 political prisoners. Notably, this included Siarhei Tsikhanouski, the husband of the former opposition leader Sviatlana Tskhanouskaya.
This release happened just hours after Lukashenko met with U.S. envoy Keith Kellogg in Minsk. Characterized as Minsk’s most significant political prisoner, Tsikhanouski’s release highlights the importance of this act.
Kellogg’s visit wasn’t his first trip to Belarus. In February, shortly after his initial visit, authorities released three political prisoners, including American citizens. This pattern suggests that each round of prisoner releases may be linked to diplomatic efforts involving Kellogg.
However, just because a few political prisoners were pardoned doesn’t necessarily mean that the regime’s hold on power has weakened.
Since her emergence in 2020, Tsikhanouskaya has actively campaigned for the freedom of all Belarusian political prisoners, using international platforms such as journalism, TV interviews, and social media. Her consistent message emphasizes that releasing a few select prisoners isn’t enough for the democratic movement she represents.
On social media, Tsikhanouskaya expressed gratitude to President Trump, Kellogg, and others for her husband’s release but insisted, “We’re not finished,” calling for the release of the remaining 1,186 political prisoners.
Given the number of political prisoners still imprisoned, Lukashenko’s limited pardons fall short of indicating any meaningful change. They appear to be a calculated move to improve Belarus’s international standing while reducing reliance on Russia and Vladimir Putin.
Belarus is a major global producer of potash, essential for fertilizers. However, sanctions and restrictions on using Lithuania’s Klaipeda port have severely limited access to Western markets. Most Belarusian potash now reaches buyers in China and other Asian countries via Russia, which controls this route and competes with Belarus in the fertilizer market—this dynamic increases costs for Belarus and strengthens Lukashenko’s ties to the Kremlin.
Putin’s influence might explain why Lukashenko is willing to trade high-profile prisoner releases for discussions aimed at easing sanctions and regaining access to more favorable trade routes.
By sending Kellogg to Minsk, Trump may be looking to facilitate peace talks regarding Ukraine. This also helps position Belarus away from Putin’s influence, reinforcing Trump’s view that his diplomatic efforts can manage Russia effectively.
In the U.S., over 90% of potash is imported. Major exporters include Canada, Belarus, and China, with Belarusian sales to China surging from 17% in 2021 to over 70% in 2023. Lukashenko was even welcomed as a “true friend” during a June summit in Beijing.
For Trump, the prisoner release adds weight to his claims that direct diplomacy can shift alliances in favor of U.S. security concerns, especially as he maintains a tough stance toward Beijing.
While there may be economic motives driving U.S. engagement with Lukashenko, this does not indicate a cessation of international criticism toward his administration or support for the opposition. Just recently, the EU imposed additional sanctions, adding 25 officials and seven entities to a growing list of those facing sanctions.
The political landscape remains open for Tsikhanouskaya and her supporters, with a commitment from foreign parliaments and organizations to uphold democratic accountability in Belarus.
This external pressure will undoubtedly continue to support the opposition’s cause, ensuring that the fight for democracy in Belarus doesn’t lose momentum.
