The top of the ACC is trash.
Florida State is on a steep decline. Clemson lost to Georgia. Virginia Tech lost to Vanderbilt. North Carolina State lost to Tennessee by 40 points.
Louisville is 2-0 against unworthy opponents (Jacksonville State and Austin Peay).
Pittsburgh is 3-0 but has had two lucky comebacks in the fourth quarter, and North Carolina should have lost to Minnesota in Week 1.
On top of that, the conference as a whole is 0-4 against ranked opponents outside of the ACC.
But one team is beginning to emerge from the Atlantic coast's trash heap.
The most impressive performance in the ACC early this season was Miami's blowout win over Florida.
The Gators aren't very strong, but the Hurricanes embarrassed them in Gainesville with quarterback Cam Ward's 380 yards and three touchdowns.
Ward is the Heisman Trophy front-runner (+450, FanDuel) and leads the FBS in Pro Football Focus passing grade (93.1) and touchdown passes (11) while ranking second only to Mississippi State's Jackson Dart in yards per dropback (11.3).
Miami has a capable run attack in Oregon State transfer Damien Martinez (47% success rate), their defense is second in the nation in Havoc Rate (23%) and their special teams are on the edge of being elite.
Still, Ward is a major reason why the Hurricanes lead all FBS teams in net EPA per play (+0.72).
But he does have a weakness, and that is the Havoc: When he goes from a clean pocket to a pressured pocket, his adjusted passing success rate drops by about 20 points and he becomes much more vulnerable to plays that lead to turnovers.
Fortunately, Miami’s ACC schedule includes a defense that could finish at or below the national average in Havoc percentages.
The Hurricanes will face talented defenses in Virginia Tech and Florida State, both of which are not doing very well and will play at home, while Miami will not face Clemson, which also has a talented defense.
The biggest challenge will be against Louisville, as Ward will have to deal with talented defensive end Ashton Girotte in a hostile environment, but the Hurricanes have the week off before that to prepare.
With other teams in the ACC falling apart, Miami has the quarterback and schedule combination to pull themselves out of this mess. I expect Miami to win every game by double digits except Florida State and Louisville.
Recommendation: Miami to win the ACC (+135, DraftKings).
Big 12: Eyes on Iowa State
I bet 11/1 in the preseason that Iowa State would win the Big 12, and I don’t see why the odds haven’t changed.
The team returns 19 starters from last year's squad, which won five of seven games since Rocco Becht took over at quarterback.
Becht was named the Big 12 Freshman of the Year in 2023 and returns two of his top three wide receivers and all of his starting offensive linemen. Matt Campbell's defense returns nine starters from 2023 and the secondary looks strong.
Over the past three seasons, Iowa State was 1-6 in games decided by four points or less, so with improved performance from returning players and better luck in close games, it seemed like a sure thing the school would win the Big 12.
They finally got some of that good fortune, pulling off a stunning one-point win against Iowa's vaunted defense on the road in Week 2. Meanwhile, here are some other notable Big 12 results from Weeks 1 through 3:
- Utah quarterback Cam Rising is injured again.
- Kansas State's secondary got beaten by Tulane.
- Oklahoma State should have lost to Arkansas.
- UCF's secondary was torched by TCU.
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Still, all of these teams have a worse chance of winning the Big 12 than Iowa State. I power-rate the Cyclones as the top team in the Big 12, and the eye test has confirmed that so far.
Recommendation: Iowa State to win the Big 12 (11/1, Caesars).
Why trust New York Post Betting?
Tanner McGrath has been a professional sports handicapper since 2018. Specializing in college sports and baseball, McGrath is an avid fan of the Vermont Catmounts, Miami Marlins and any team that loses at home. He lost the Miami Miracle in 2018 but bounced back four years later by betting Sandy Alcantara, a 40/1 long shot, to win the National League Cy Young Award.
