Thursday night’s Ravens-Jaguars matchup has taken an unexpected turn. Baltimore is preparing to start its third-string quarterback against one of the AFC’s strongest teams, a change that could reshape the outlook for several player props.
The Ravens’ quarterback situation has unraveled quickly. Lamar Jackson went on injured reserve after jamming his right thumb on the first play in Buffalo. Tyler Huntley is reportedly out for the season with turf toe, while Skylar Thompson is also on injured reserve. Undrafted rookie Joe Fagnano, a former UConn quarterback, is expected to start. In relief last week, he completed 10 of 21 passes for 91 yards, threw an interception and lost a fumble.
Jacksonville enters at 5-2, with the league’s top point differential and a 42-7 win over Indianapolis in its most recent game. Trevor Lawrence has thrown 17 touchdowns and four interceptions. The Jaguars are 9.5-point road favorites.
Joe Fagnano completions (lower): Baltimore will likely keep the offense simple for a rookie making his first start on a short week. That could mean plenty of handoffs, quick throws and limited attempts downfield. Fagnano completed only 10 passes in extended action last week, and the Ravens may try to avoid putting him in frequent passing situations.
Trevor Lawrence passing touchdowns (higher): Lawrence has been both efficient and willing to take chances this season. Baltimore could be without cornerback Nate Wiggins, who is questionable after a concussion, though he practiced earlier in the week. If Fagnano gives Jacksonville favorable field position, Lawrence may have opportunities to score in the red zone.
Trevor Lawrence pass attempts (lower): There’s another way to read the matchup. If the Jaguars build an early lead, they may have little reason to keep passing. A comfortable advantage over a rookie quarterback could lead to more running plays after halftime. Lawrence could throw multiple touchdowns and still finish below his attempts line.
Ravens rushing attempts (higher): Baltimore’s clearest path may be to slow the game down. Running the ball would help keep Fagnano out of obvious passing situations and limit Jacksonville’s time with the ball. Even if the Ravens fall behind, they could stick with the run longer than most teams would.
Odds are subject to change.
