After this year’s State of the Union address, active Biden supporter An avalanche of spin and opinion about the PR campaign, how great it was, and how it put Donald Trump and the Republican Party on the back foot. Polls in the coming weeks show a close race, with some polls showing President Biden in the lead.
But it all looks like a mirage. Despite trying to paint it otherwise, Biden is losing to Trump. He is trailing (albeit only slightly) in national polls and continues to maintain a large enough lead in state polls to hand the election to Trump. And Democrats don’t seem to have a real plan to get out of the voting mess.
Biden has a sinking feeling.
For President Biden and the Democratic Party, the numbers are dire. Biden continues to trail Trump in favorability ratings.his real clear politics The average has hovered around -15 points, 4 points worse than Trump.of Right trajectory/wrong direction The deficit is nearly 40 points.Democrats are at an impasse. “celebrate” The approval rate is 43%.
As national voting tests approach, Biden is lagging in battleground states. He has losing streaks to Georgia, Arizona, Nevada and Michigan, and hasn’t had a positive margin since last year. Although Biden closed the gap in some states following the State of the Union address, the numbers appear to be either temporary increases or fluctuations within the margin of error.
Recent polls show Trump with a 6 point lead. michigan6 points arizona and 6 points georgia, all above the RCP average. As with all things that matter, Biden continues to lose. Although the RCP average has fallen from its December high, it remains negative for incumbent presidents. This consistency is concerning because it suggests more voters have settled on their choices.
Among the electorate, Mr. Biden is witnessing a dangerous erosion of traditional Democratic coalitions. While predictions that Trump will win 25 percent of the black vote or the Hispanic vote seem pretty pie-in-the-sky, the erosion of these key voting blocs is a reality. YouGov’s weekly benchmark poll showed President Trump’s approval rating among black voters was around 13%, one point better than the 2020 exit poll. But that’s not all. April 9th standard Biden’s approval rating is just 62%, with 25% undecided. Mr. Trump would need just one-tenth of the outstanding votes to pass 15%, a significant number of votes Mr. Biden needs.
It’s a similar story for Hispanics. According to the newspaper, President Trump’s score was 32%. 2020 exit.Trump has been in that number the last two times. YouGov poll. However, although Biden won 65% in 2020, he cannot break the 50% mark. Hispanics dislike Trump more than Biden, but Biden’s lead is only 6 points. Black voters are one of the few groups favoring Biden, but their disapproval rate remains at 34%.
Inflation and immigration are hurting Biden.
Biden has been frustrated by inflation and immigration numbers, especially inflation. Inflation has been a top concern for voters for more than a year. 21% said inflation was a top issue, and 77% said inflation was “very important.” No other problem comes close to this.
To make matters worse for Biden, his abysmal approval ratings are even worse on inflation. The latest YouGov poll shows Biden’s approval rating at 31%, disapproval at 62%, approval at 40%, and disapproval at 58%. 60% of Hispanics disapprove, and even black voters are negative online. Independents give Biden just 20% support (68% disapprove).
Democratic Party response Shift the responsibility for standard excess profits/greedy inflation and tell the public. they are wrong. Neither of these tactics are long-term solutions. Complaining that fueling corporate greed won’t bring down gas prices and that public opinion is stupid is the worst tactic in politics.
There is little evidence that Team Biden has an actual plan. They seemed to have expected that over time, inflation would subside, and that criticism could end it. But that’s not the case.Inflation remains above Fed target interest rate, interest rate easing will be delayed. To make matters worse, the 2022-2023 shock remains baked into current prices. Biden needs to stop rising prices now, as even modest inflation puts pressure on household budgets and the effects of previous shocks persist.
For these reasons, the public’s concerns about inflation are more than adequate. Taxing the wealthy and attacking American businesses may give the Biden campaign a temporary sugar rush, but they will do nothing to help middle-class and working-class voters make ends meet. not stand. Options like cutting government spending, rolling back new regulations (which consumers will ultimately pay for), and increasing competition in the private sector are simply off the table. Such ideas are unthinkable to the progressive left.
Immigration isn’t enough to curb inflation, but it’s still a problem. As with inflation, Biden’s approval ratings on this issue are worse than overall, including among Hispanic and black voters. Immigration could be a counterbalance to abortion (the only issue on which Democrats support majority opinion), which would certainly drive turnout. But for Republicans, immigration also boosts voter turnout.
Additionally, independents are more concerned about immigration (48% say the issue is very serious) than abortion (41%), as are Hispanics (52% vs. 44%). Independents and Hispanics also list immigration as a top priority.
As with inflation, Biden doesn’t seem to have a plan. Democratic voters rank immigration near the bottom, and tighter border controls and increased arrests and deportations are sure to provoke howls of protest from the progressive left. Mr. Biden’s lack of policy on inflation and immigration leaves him rudderless on two issues that matter to the nation.
Bet on the downfall of President Trump
Team Biden is calling for a rerun of 2020, essentially a “no Trump” campaign. But when you’re president, you own all the problems (and all presidents always take credit for everything they can, so that’s a pretty good deal).Biden has faced a steady decline ever since. year 2012 Democratic support among Black and Hispanic voters fell from 93% and 71% to 87% and 65% in 2020, and is still declining.
Mr. Biden is frozen in his party’s own unstable politics, with no plans on inflation or immigration and wobbling and failing in the conflict between Israel and Hamas. “Wait a minute and hope it works” is not a good strategy. But Trump remains the Democratic Party’s best asset and could still bail them out.
The 2024 presidential election must not come close. Given the current polling and issue environment, Trump and the Republicans should be on their way to a landslide victory, with control of both the presidency and Congress. If the Republicans lose in the fall, it will be the biggest failure in American electoral history.
Dr. Keith Naughton is co-founder of Silent Majority Strategies, a public and regulatory affairs consulting firm. Norton is a former Pennsylvania political campaign consultant. Follow him on Twitter @KNaughton711.
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