Biden’s powerful electoral message emerges

President Joe Biden was quoted by the New York Times as saying: “Ferocious criticism”Donald Trump speaks in Valley Forge, Pennsylvania on Friday. Biden framed the stakes of the upcoming election as one that will determine whether our freedoms continue in the constitutional republic on which our future depends.

Biden said the U.S. cannot afford a president like Donald Trump, and that Trump-appointed Supreme Court justices have already stripped away reproductive freedoms, guaranteed in the Constitution since 1789 and others. He argued that there was a strong possibility that the rights of the people would be undermined.

But clearly democracy will not be his only theme in the coming months. Over time, the Biden campaign will emphasize its belief that voters remain bound by the traditional political gravity of a strong economy.

Regarding Biden's focus on the fight to protect American democracy, the president opened his campaign by declaring that America's “democracy is in the vote.” Your freedom depends on your vote. ”

On the same day, the Supreme Court I decided to review Biden effectively advanced that distinction when the Colorado Supreme Court ruled that Trump was an insurrectionist and should be excluded from the state's primary ballot. compare From what President Trump did after the 2020 election to what's next: “President Trump is trying to steal history, just as he tried to steal the election,” Biden said. “It was on TV. We saw it with our own eyes.”

The president posed this question to voters in clear moral terms. “We all know who Donald Trump is. The question is: Who are we?”

Of course, in elections, even the toughest moral choices are lived within our concrete lives, most importantly our ability to put food on the table and pay our bills. Mr. Biden will eventually hit out at the second theme just as hard. In short, Mr. Biden has led a strong economic recovery that has led to higher real wages and stronger consumer confidence.

As Axios Market I summarized it On January 3, “The United States has the strongest economy among the rich nations. The much-anticipated recession in 2023 has not occurred, and employment remains strong and real wages are rising.'' , the outlook for 2024 is equally healthy.”

Assuming that success continues, here's a look at five areas voters won't be able to ignore.

1. Full recovery from the economic downturn caused by the pandemic. Economist Paul Krugman wrote in the New York Times on January 1: column: “The big questions that arose in the years that followed. [the pandemic] The question was whether America could fully recover from that shock. In 2023, the answer is yes. ”

Ministry of Finance report According to an October announcement, America's GDP growth rate in the second quarter of 2023 compared to 2019 was 6%, more than double that of major European countries and Japan.

How did this happen? Any objective economist would recognize the role that Mr. Biden's success played in getting Congress to pass legislation such as: Bipartisan Infrastructure and Jobs Act; of chips and science, aimed at reducing dependence on foreign microprocessor supply chains.And that inflation control law, focused on creating 9 million jobs and investing billions of dollars in clean energy production. These bills expanded America's manufacturing capacity and fostered sustained economic growth.

2. Rapidly cooling inflation. It is noteworthy that during a period of full employment and strong economic growth, inflation has fallen to near normal.The latest report shows that the annual inflation rate is 3.1 percentsignificantly less than that 9% peak Following Russia's invasion of Ukraine and supply chain disruption. The current annual price increase rate is Annual average 2.5% 30 years before the pandemic.

These all show up at gas stations and grocery stores.Pump prices drop below $3 per gallon For the majority of Americans. Don't look now, but people are noticing — turn around It started with Americans telling pollsters about the economy.

Another thing we must remember is Biden's success in putting pressure on drug companies. Low price Insulin costs for the growing number of Americans with diabetes will rise to $35 per month.

3. Increase in the real wages of workers. When wage increases exceed inflation, workers experience a “real income increase.” From November 2022 to November 2023, Average real profit growth rate is 1.4%.

Increased purchasing power helps explain why Americans spend money 3% or more This holiday season signals greater consumer optimism than last year. Perhaps that confidence is leading indicators For good economic news in 2024.

4. “Soft Landing”. The prediction that a recession will occur in 2023 is bustand the consensus outlook is There is no recession While the Federal Reserve's conduct of monetary policy deserves much of the credit here, Biden's policies are also a key part of the success.

5. Housing market recovery is expected to begin. said Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate, a personal finance publisher for the banking industry. To tell“We turned the corner.” [in mortgage rates]The Fed has finished raising interest rates, inflation has fallen, and moderate economic growth is expected in 2024. ”

according to Forbes coverage January 4th, Mortgage Bankers Association Predict By the end of 2024, “total mortgage originations will increase by nearly 20%” and “the outlook for home builders, which had been on a downtrend, is on the rise again.”

Given the important place the housing market occupies in the U.S. economy, a slow and steady recovery bodes well for the health of the U.S. economy in 2024.

Unfortunately, our view of elections is often distorted by premature “horse race” polls. report The results are not from people who are likely to vote, but from registered voters, including those who are more likely to not vote at all. According to the great election prognosticator Larry Sabato and the University of Virginia Center for Politics: Biden seems to be feeling better. More than Trump in the Electoral College, 260 electors in safe or less Democratic states, 235 in safe or less Democratic states, and 43 in states Biden won all in 2020. It became a vote.

Betting 10 months before an election is best left to those who believe their next ticket will win the lottery. The winner of an election will be determined by unpredictable events, by the actions of our people from now to then, and especially by which candidates go to the polling stations to vote.

But don't consider the possibility of Bidennomics just yet.

Dennis Aftergut is a former federal prosecutor and civil litigator who currently serves as a federal prosecutor's attorney. Lawyers defending American democracy.