Billionaires Invest in an Index Fund Outperforming AI Stocks Nvidia and Palantir in 2026

The SPDR Gold Stock ETF (GLD +0.29%) has surged 25% so far this year. In comparison, Palantir Technologies has dropped by 12%, while Nvidia saw a modest increase of 3%. What’s really striking is that this gold fund surpassed both AI stocks by at least 50 percentage points over the last six months.

When considering the SPDR Gold Stock ETF’s performance against the S&P 500 (^GSPC 0.13%), it’s impressive as well. The ETF has outperformed the index by 23 percentage points year-to-date and 52 percentage points over the past six months. Notably, two hedge fund billionaires have adjusted their portfolios with the expectation of profits in the upcoming quarter.

• Israel Englander of Millennium Management acquired 104,900 shares of the SPDR Gold Shares ETF, though as of September 2025, gold funds represented less than 1% of his overall portfolio.
• Ken Griffin from Citadel Advisors added 255,100 shares and also purchased call options on gold funds, making it a significant part of his holdings as of September 2025.

Both Millennium and Citadel have recorded better performance than the S&P 500 over the past three years and are ranked among the top five hedge funds based on net income, according to LCH Investments. So, I guess it’s safe to say that following Englander and Griffin might be worth considering.

The real question now is whether gold funds, like the SPDR Gold Stock ETF, are still a smart investment.

SPDR Gold Shares ETF tracks the price of gold

This exchange-traded fund, managed by State Street, provides a way to track gold prices by dividing physical bullion into tradable shares. This setup offers more liquidity and convenience compared to owning physical gold bars.

Historically, gold’s price changes haven’t directly correlated with stocks or bonds, making it an appealing diversifier in investment portfolios. This is especially true in times of global instability or economic downturns.

State Street notes that “gold has long been associated with a low negative correlation to many financial asset indexes, often acting as a hedge during significant market drops or geopolitical tensions.”

For context, during the 2008 financial crisis, gold prices fell by 29%, while the S&P 500 plunged 57%. In 2020’s brief recession, gold prices decreased by 13% against a 34% drop for the S&P 500. Even in 2022, when inflation soared to a 40-year high, gold prices fell 21% while the S&P 500 decreased by 25%.

Geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty influenced by President Trump’s policies

The valuation of gold, like any other commodity, hinges on supply and demand dynamics. Supply has slowly increased, with above-ground gold stocks growing by about 2% annually for decades. Hence, the focus often shifts to demand.

Gold is widely regarded as a safe haven during geopolitical crises or economic struggles since it tends to retain or even increase in value under those circumstances. Unsurprisingly, demand for gold tends to rise in times of fear related to conflicts, inflation, or recession.

President Trump’s policies have heightened these concerns through tax, trade, and foreign policy decisions. In his second term, the U.S. dollar index fell 11%, hitting a four-year low, partially due to tariffs, tax cuts, increased national debt, and his controversial actions.

While some analysts on Wall Street believe the geopolitical and economic chaos stemming from the Trump administration could increase gold prices in the latter parts of 2026, others think the metal may lose value instead.

The provided chart shows year-end gold price predictions from various financial institutions and tells you how these compare to the current price of $5,400 per ounce.

It’s important to remember that investors shouldn’t always take Wall Street’s forecasts at face value. Sure, gold’s value has nearly doubled recently, but very few analysts saw that coming. So, perhaps, for investors, particularly those who think Trump’s policies will continue to fuel global uncertainty, it might be wise to consider some exposure to gold. Generally speaking, investing in a gold ETF like the SPDR Gold Shares ETF could be a straightforward, cost-effective way to do that.