The SPDR Gold Stock ETF (NYSEMKT:GLD) has increased by 25% this year. In comparison, Palantir Technologies saw a decline of 12%, while Nvidia rose by 3%. Interestingly, over the last six months, the gold fund has outperformed both AI stocks by at least 50 percentage points.
On another note, the SPDR Gold Stock ETF has also surpassed the performance of the S&P500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC). It’s up 23 percentage points for the year and an impressive 52 percentage points in the last six months. Two hedge fund billionaires, known for their solid track records, have adjusted their portfolios for potential gains in the upcoming quarter.
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Israel Englander from Millennium Management has increased his holdings in the SPDR Gold Shares ETF by 104,900 shares. As of September 2025, his gold investments made up less than 1% of his total portfolio.
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Ken Griffin of Citadel Advisors acquired 255,100 shares of the SPDR Gold Shares ETF. He also ventured into Call options. His gold holdings are now his fourth largest investment as of September 2025.
Both Millennium and Citadel have outperformed the S&P 500 in the last three years and rank among the top five hedge funds historically, according to LCH Investments. So, looking at what Englander and Griffin are doing could be insightful.
But should one still consider gold funds, like the SPDR Gold Stock ETF, as viable investments?
The SPDR Gold Stock ETF operates as an exchange-traded investment fund, managed by State Street. It tracks gold prices by splitting the physical gold held in vaults into tradable shares. This makes investing in gold more accessible and liquid compared to purchasing gold bars.
Gold’s price movements have historically shown little correlation with stocks or bonds, making it a compelling choice for diversifying a portfolio. Particularly in times of global uncertainty, economic crises, or scenarios that might lead to declines in stocks and bonds, gold can appear attractive.
According to State Street, “gold has long had a low negative correlation to many financial asset indexes and has a record of providing a hedge during significant market declines, systemic risks, and geopolitical uncertainties.”
For example, during the 2008 financial crisis, gold prices dropped by 29%, while the S&P 500 fell by 57%. In the brief recession of 2020, gold prices decreased by 13%, compared to a 34% drop in the S&P 500. Additionally, when inflation peaked in 2022, gold fell by 21% and the S&P 500 by 25%.
The price of gold, much like any commodity, hinges on supply and demand. The supply has been gradually increasing, with above-ground gold stocks rising by around 2% annually for the last few decades. Therefore, demand is the more crucial factor.
Gold is commonly seen as a safe asset, as it tends to hold or even increase its value during geopolitical tensions or crises. This often leads to higher demand for gold when investors are uneasy about factors like war, inflation, recession, or the depreciation of currencies like the U.S. dollar.
Former President Trump has heightened these concerns through various policy decisions. During his second term, the U.S. dollar index fell 11% to a four-year low, influenced by significant tariffs, tax cuts, rising government debt, attempts to compromise the Federal Reserve’s independence, and even threats regarding Greenland.
While many analysts on Wall Street believe that the economic and political turbulence stemming from Trump’s administration could drive gold prices up in the remaining months of 2026, there are also voices suggesting that the precious metal may lose value.
The following chart highlights year-end gold price predictions from various investment banks and research entities, along with the expected upside or downside in contrast to the current price of $5,400 per ounce.
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financial institution
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Gold price per ounce in 2026
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upward (downward)
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bank of america
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$6,000
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11%
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deutsche bank
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$6,000
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11%
|
|
société generale
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$6,000
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11%
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|
morgan stanley
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$5,700
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5%
|
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goldman sachs
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$5,400
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0%
|
|
JP Morgan Chase
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$5,300
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(2%)
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citibank
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$5,000
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(8%)
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standard chartered
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$4,800
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(11%)
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|
wells fargo
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$4,700
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(13%)
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|
median
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$5,400
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0%
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Data sources: Reuters, CNBC, public company reports.
Nevertheless, investors shouldn’t solely rely on Wall Street wisdom. Gold has nearly doubled in value over the last year, yet few analysts had predicted such a surge. Thus, I think those who suspect that Trump’s influence will continue to provoke global tensions might want to look into investing. Purchasing shares in a gold ETF, like the SPDR Gold Shares ETF, is generally a straightforward method to gain exposure to gold.
Before diving in, here are some considerations:
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Companies such as Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, and Bank of America are advertising partners of Motley Fool Money. The Motley Fool also has positions in and recommends Goldman Sachs Group, JPMorgan Chase, Nvidia, and Palantir Technologies. For further information, refer to the Disclosure policy.
Billionaire buys index funds that could crush AI stocks Nvidia and Palantir in 2026 Originally published by The Motley Fool
