Bitcoin’s Current Market Status
Bitcoin has been lingering at levels usually seen only at the end of a bear market, and this trend continues even after the U.S. reported its highest inflation in three years.
Checkonchain data reveals that BTC is nearing its 200-week average, part of a broader four-year trend line that long-term investors keep an eye on. This situation places Bitcoin in the bottom 10% of its historic valuation range, a position that typically surfaces only during the most severe bear markets.
Market sentiment appears equally bleak. The Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index dropped to 9, indicating extreme fear, a notable decrease from 11 last week and a stark contrast to 48 a month prior.
Such metrics usually emerge once the price-sensitive sellers have mostly exited the market. However, CheckonChain cautions that finding the bottom is a gradual process—first comes capitulation, followed by months of stagnant trading that erodes the confidence of those who stay.
This week, Bitcoin briefly fell below $60,000 for the first time since 2024, settling at $62,623 on Thursday, which marked a 1.9% increase on the day. Yet, the price has been declining over the week amid record ETF withdrawals.
The recent uptick was broad but lacked depth. Ether climbed 1.4% to $1,651, while BNB increased by 1.3% to $595, Solana rose 0.9% to $65, and Dogecoin saw a 1.1% rise to $0.085. XRP lagged, dropping 0.3% to $1.12. All these cryptocurrencies have been on a downward trajectory over the past week, with Ether down 6.5% and XRP falling by 7.5%. Thursday’s rally merely softened the impact of this week’s downturn.
Current inflation conditions are not promising for a quick recovery. U.S. consumer prices increased by 0.5% in May compared to April and are up 4.2% year-over-year, marking the fastest pace since early 2023, largely driven by rising energy costs related to the ongoing conflict in Iran, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Core inflation measures, excluding food and energy, edged up by 0.2%, falling short of economists’ expectations and providing the only hint of weakness in an otherwise closely watched report.
Eve Renno, the head of trading at Wirex, a global crypto payments platform, remarked to CoinDesk that “hopes for regulatory clarity in the U.S. have diminished once again, with the polymarket’s probability of the Clarity Act passing in 2026 dropping from 62% to 48% this week.”
“Now, all eyes will be on the June 16-17 FOMC meeting, where Mr. Warsh’s remarks will be crucial in deciding whether Bitcoin will bounce back towards $68,000-$72,000 or dip below $60,000 entirely.”
Meanwhile, the challenges aren’t limited to cryptocurrencies alone. The tech-driven stock market faced a more intense selloff this week, with global stocks hitting a one-month low following U.S. military strikes on multiple targets in Iran that disrupted a ceasefire established since April.
MSCI’s National World Index, which is a broad measure of global stocks, reached its lowest level since May 5, while the Asia-Pacific index saw a 0.8% decline, marking its lowest point in three weeks. Brent crude oil prices rose by 1.8% to approximately $95 per barrel. The European Central Bank is anticipated to increase interest rates for the first time since September 2023, with bond traders adjusting to expectations of higher global borrowing costs.
