Bitcoin’s MVRV Ratio and Market Position
CryptoQuant contributor, known as Crypto Dan, has pointed out that Bitcoin is nearing a historically significant level in its MVRV ratio, which typically indicates market “undervaluation.” Traders are now keenly watching for hints that the prolonged drop from Bitcoin’s all-time high in October 2025 is transitioning from a distribution phase to one of accumulation.
Is Bitcoin Undervalued?
In a post on X, Dan noted that Bitcoin is “approaching the undervalued zone,” suggesting that the market is nearing a point where long-term investors might find attractive risk-reward levels.
He explained, “Bitcoin has been on a downward trend for about four months since hitting its peak in October 2025, and it’s now close to this undervalued zone. Generally, Bitcoin is seen as undervalued when the MVRV ratio dips below 1. Right now, it’s hovering around 1.1, getting close to that threshold.”
The relevance of the MVRV frame is crucial here; it often narrows towards 1 close to the previous cycle’s lows. Dan shared a chart indicating that the ratio is around 1.10, which underscores earlier declines that were below 1.0, aligning with historical bottom points.
However, Dan advised caution, warning traders against assuming that the current conditions perfectly reflect earlier downturns. The evaluation metrics from past cycles may differ significantly.
“It’s vital to remember that this cycle hasn’t seen Bitcoin surge sharply into overvaluation during an uptrend as prior cycles did. Consequently, the pattern of this decline could also look different from previous bottom zones, so it’s wise to be prepared for that,” he commented.
This perspective prompted a brief exchange, where a user named onlyus8x posited that if Bitcoin reaches all-time highs this cycle more quickly than before, it could suggest a faster end to the economic slump: “Wouldn’t the winter also be over three times quicker?”
Crypto Dan responded, emphasizing that he considers various factors from the past, which leads him to establish standards that differ from previous downturns.
Mayer Multiple and 200-Week Moving Average
In another update, analyst Will Clemente highlighted that two well-followed price indicators are nearing historically favorable ranges. He stated, “Over Bitcoin’s lifespan, we have consistently seen the Mayer multiple (which measures distance from the 200-day moving average) and the 200-week moving average serve as excellent indicators for market bottoms.”
Clemente mentioned that these metrics are currently indicating a strong accumulation phase.
The chart shared reveals a Mayer multiple around 0.60, along with data showing historical instances when the indicator hit that mark. Additionally, the current 200-week moving average is positioned near $57,926, while Bitcoin trades approximately 15% above that level—important to note is the current drawdown hasn’t yet reached that benchmark.
As of this moment, Bitcoin’s price stands at $67,277.
