Simply put
- Several analysts are predicting a downturn for Bitcoin, estimating it might fall to $55,000 before any significant recovery happens.
- There’s growing interest in an upcoming auction for a rare Pokémon card, with forecasts suggesting it could sell for under $9 million.
- Italy currently leads in medal counts at the Winter Olympics, with experts optimistic about their chances of staying ahead of Japan.
This is reflected in the Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index, which is at a low not seen in years, indicating that the market remains in a state of “extreme fear.”
The apprehension aligns with Bitcoin’s price, which hovers around $65,000. However, analysts aren’t becoming more positive; instead, they anticipate a potential drop to $55,000 for the leading cryptocurrency.
Below, we explore some of this week’s prominent markets on the prediction market platform, including Bitcoin, the significant Pokémon card auction, and the competitive landscape between Japan and Italy at the Winter Olympics.
(Disclaimer: Myriad Markets is a product of Dastan, the parent company of Decrypt.)
Bitcoin’s next move: Will it soar to $84,000 or plummet to $55,000?
Market open: February 5th
Market ends: open until resolved
Volume: $12,000
Link: The latest odds are “BTC’s next move: Will it soar to $84,000 or plummet to $55,000?” Myriad Market
Even with a recent recovery from lows near $60,000, forecasters remain pessimistic about Bitcoin’s immediate future.
Bitcoin recently traded below $66,000, experiencing a decline of more than 2.5% over the last day, although it has been relatively stable over the week. Still, the past month has seen Bitcoin drop by 29%.
Indicators now show a significant shift in expectations for Bitcoin’s trajectory, with 62% of analysts predicting a fall to $55,000—an increase of about 14% since February 7th.
Interestingly, it’s not just popular opinion leaning towards lower figures. A recent report from Standard Chartered forecasts that Bitcoin could dip to $50,000 before any recovery, aligning with Galaxy Digital’s analysis that indicates Bitcoin is still moving towards the 200-week moving average price of $58,000, highlighting structural weaknesses and a lack of short-term catalysts.
Speaking of potential influences, a Federal Reserve rate cut seems increasingly unlikely as of Wednesday, following a more favorable job report.
What’s next? The likelihood of a 25bps interest rate cut in March is less than 8% on FedWatch and only 6% in polymarkets.
Will Logan Paul’s illustrator Pokémon cards sell for more than $9 million?
Market open: December 30th
Market ends: open until resolved
Volume: $39,000
Link: The latest odds are “Will Logan Paul’s Pokémon cards sell for more than $9 million?” Myriad Market
Logan Paul, a well-known YouTuber and professional wrestler, set a record in 2021 when he bought a Pikachu illustrator card for about $5.3 million.
Now, as he puts it up for auction, many are speculating whether it will surpass the $9 million mark.
Last month, most forecasts were optimistic about the card selling for more than $9 million, with predictions reaching as high as 84%. Yet, as the auction nears its conclusion, sentiments have shifted, and currently, 58% expect it to sell for less than that amount.
This card is notably the only Pikachu illustrator to achieve a perfect score of 10 from Pro Sports Authenticator (PSA) and currently holds a bid of $5.1 million, with just three days remaining in the auction.
Interestingly, Myriad’s prediction tool contrasts with other major prediction markets. For instance, in Karshi, there’s a 53% chance the card will sell for $9 million and 41% for $10 million.
Regardless of the final sale, the buyer will receive not just the card but a special diamond necklace card holder that Paul wore during WWE’s WrestleMania 38, along with additional prizes from internet celebrities.
What’s next? The auction concludes on February 15th.
Who will win more medals at the Winter Olympics: Italy or Japan?
Market open: January 16th
Market ends: February 19th
Volume: $10,800
Link: The latest odds are “Who will win more medals at the Winter Olympics?” Myriad Market
With the Super Bowl wrapped up, sports fans still have the Winter Olympics in Italy to look forward to for at least another week.
Viewers can speculate on whether Italy or Japan will take home more medals.
What initially seemed like a close competition has shifted dramatically over the past week due to more medals being awarded. Last week, Italy was about 63% more likely to gather more medals than Japan.
However, Italy’s chances now stand at 92%, a notable 29% rise, thanks to a strong performance by their athletes.
In just the first week, Italy earned a total of 16 medals, surpassing all other nations during the previous Games.
This tally even outpaces Norway, which was favored to be the top medal winner this year, trailing Italy by two medals. According to Polymarket data, this year’s Winter Olympics is shaping up to be quite competitive.
Japan, meanwhile, remains seven medals behind Italy, and with significantly fewer athletes entering the competition, their odds appear slim.
Yet, predictions still suggest they hold around an 8% chance of exceeding Italy’s total medal count.
What’s next? Both nations will have multiple athletes competing Thursday in advanced rounds of events like speed skating and snowboarding.
