Blame modern decisions, not just ancient history, for economic inequality | Torsten Bell

PPersistence studies are all the rage in economics, using clever mathematics to show how events from the distant past affect political and economic outcomes today. One well-known example He argues that the reason Britain grew better than France until around 1800 was because of the collapse of the Western Roman Empire 1000 years earlier. The collapse of the Western Roman Empire shifted the population away from cities, whereas France's Roman towns remained intact. So when British cities re-emerged, they were better placed to develop until the Industrial Revolution.

It's an interesting story. But persistence research also produces something dangerous: determinism. If ancient history can be so influential, what hope do we have of shaping our own destiny? So I New Paper The study, by Lukas Althoff and Hugo Reichardt, examines the enduring economic impacts of slavery. Their findings seem to tell the usual persistent story: Black Americans whose ancestors were enslaved before the Civil War have fared significantly worse economically ever since than their free counterparts, with descendants of slaves still earning $11,620 less in 2023 than other Black Americans.

But this is also a story about continuing choices. Why? Because the direct impact of having enslaved ancestors faded by 1940. To their lasting disadvantage, enslaved people were more likely to live in states that continued to oppress black Americans after slavery was abolished. This oppression was perpetuated by the notorious Jim Crow laws that continued in Southern states until the 1960s.

While history and slavery in particular cast a long shadow, more recent choices continue to shape our political and economic present, for better or worse.

Torsten Bell is the Labour MP for Swansea West and author of Great Britain: How to Reclaim Our Future.

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