Brazil’s Oil Exports Surge as China’s Imports Shift

Brazil has experienced a notable increase in trade with China, with the trade volume reaching a staggering $142 billion by September 2026. This surge is largely attributed to a rise in Brazilian oil exports, particularly following the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz, which impacted China’s oil supply from the Persian Gulf.

Data from the Brazil-China Business Council reveals that Brazil is enjoying a trade surplus of $26.1 billion with China, driven by oil sales that hit a record $21.8 billion—a 49 percent rise compared to the previous year.

While soybeans remain Brazil’s top export to China, oil is rapidly gaining ground. Currently, soybeans account for 35.4 percent of Brazil’s exports to China, whereas oil now constitutes 25.8 percent. In contrast, exports of Brazilian beef have decreased by 8.5 percent due to various tariffs and caps imposed by China to protect local suppliers.

Notably, China has become the primary buyer of Brazilian oil, purchasing about half of the country’s total oil exports. This positions China well ahead of India’s current import levels. Reports indicate that China is now importing over a million barrels daily, occasionally exceeding 1.6 million, while India only imports approximately 238,000 barrels per day.

Brazil’s exports to India have also seen significant growth, jumping by 165 percent this year, contributing to an overall 28.7 percent increase in Brazilian oil exports across all markets.

However, the remarkable growth in Brazil’s oil exports may soon stabilize. Recent months have seen a recovery in oil exports from the Persian Gulf, leading to increased traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. It’s uncertain whether renewed Iranian military actions against shipping in the strait will redirect China’s oil interests back to Brazil as a primary supplier.

Industry analysts have suggested that while Brazil’s oil export boom has been a boost for its economy—especially after China’s tariffs on beef imports—they also point out that Brazil does not have the capacity to fully replace the supply gap left by major Persian Gulf producers. Nonetheless, the boost in oil sales has been a much-needed positive for Brazil’s economy.

Additionally, Brazil’s oil is reportedly well-suited for Asian refiners looking to minimize risks associated with the Iranian conflict, leading to increased interest from Japan and South Korea. The Brazilian government has also been actively pursuing these countries as potential oil customers.

Interestingly, Brazil’s regional competitors, such as Colombia, Ecuador, and Peru, are currently facing production declines, which may further bolster Brazil’s position in the international oil market.