British Open 2024: 3 Dark Horses who can win the Claret Jug, shock golfing world

Of the four major championships, the British Open is perhaps the most unpredictable, much like the bad weather that can suddenly strike the coast of Scotland.

One only has to remember last year when Brian Harman dominated Royal Liverpool to win at 13 under par, six strokes ahead of the rest. Arriving in the UK with pre-tournament odds of 125-1, Harman claimed his first major championship victory, which, frankly, nobody expected. The left-hander was in the right position all week, maneuvering around Hoylake while avoiding Royal Liverpool’s penalty bunkers. No one could keep up with him all weekend, and a six-under 65 on Friday sealed the win. Harman led by five strokes after 36 holes and held on to the same lead on Sunday, comfortably beating the best players in the world by a wide margin.

We may see another dark horse win at Royal Troon this week. After all, this is the course that produced the ultimate longshot winner in 2004, when Todd Hamilton beat Ernie Els in a playoff. Hamilton was the 56th-ranked player that week but went on to be named Golfer of the Year. He never again finished in the top 10 in a major championship.

Predicting this championship is no easy task but there are three dark horses we are keeping an eye on. Here are three players who could shock the world and lift the Claret Jug at Royal Troon.

3. Aaron Lai

Aaron Lai qualified for The Open after finishing tied for fourth at the Genesis Scottish Open. He shot 7-under 63 on Sunday to climb the leaderboard and book his ticket to Royal Troon. The top three finishers from the Scottish Open have qualified for this week’s event.

But his strong play at Reinassance Club was no exception. Lai has five consecutive top 20 finishes dating back to the RBC Canadian Open in early June. He tied for 19th at the U.S. Open but three bogeys late on Sunday at Pinehurst prevented him from finishing any higher.

Rai then bounced back to finish tied for second at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, but could have won in Detroit if not for a mediocre final-round even-par 72. Sure, the winds shifted and conditions worsened as the afternoon progressed, but Rai was unable to capitalize on the lead he shared with Akshay Bhatia after 54 holes.

Nevertheless, Rai PGA TOUR In terms of total strokes gained, he’s playing flawlessly, ranking first in driver accuracy rate at 72.97% and third in greens in regulation rate at 72.47%. On the rare occasion he misses the green, he’s also good up and down, ranking 10th on tour in scrambling rate. He’s not a great putter, but he still ranks 54th in strokes gained on the green.

A good ball-striker with a strong short game wins the British Open, and Lye fits that bill perfectly, so while it would no doubt be a surprise to many in the sports world if Lye were to put on both black gloves and hoist the Claret Jug, looking at the numbers, it probably wouldn’t be a surprise at all.

DraftKings odds to win: +6500

2. Jason Day

Photo: Warren Little/Getty Images

It’s a bit surprising that Jason Day has yet to win the Claret Jug, but this could be his week.

Day, 36, has enjoyed a career resurgence over the past few years, winning the AT&T Byron Nelson last year for his first PGA TOUR victory since 2018. Since then, he has recorded five top 10 finishes, including a tie for second at Royal Liverpool a year ago.

But his ball-striking numbers this season haven’t been great. Day currently ranks 149th on the PGA Tour in strokes gained on approaches to the green and 147th in greens in regulation percentage — impressive numbers for one of the best iron players of the 2010s.

So, given that iron play is so crucial at the British Open, why does Day have the advantage this week?

First, he has experience. Day tied for 22nd at Royal Troon in 2016 and knows the course well, whereas others in the field do not. Second, Day has one of the best short games in the world. He’s exquisite around the greens, a testament to his Australian background, and he putts well. On top of that, Day has a wild imagination and can close his eyes and visualize every shot. Links golf requires creative vision, and Day has that. He can also hit any shot.

DraftKings odds to win: +10000

1. Russell Henley

Photo by Luke Walker/R&A via Getty Images

The former Georgia Bulldogs player is, quite frankly, one of the most underrated players in the world.

He has made the cut in all three major tournaments this season, with his best result being a tie for seventh at the U.S. Open, and has five top 10s overall, most recently a tie for 48th at the Travelers Championship, meaning he will arrive in Scotland refreshed and ready to go.

But Henry hasn’t had a great run at The Open, missing the cut in five of his nine attempts and never finishing higher than 20th, having missed the cut at Royal Troon in 2016 and at Royal Liverpool a year ago.

Still, there aren’t many flaws in Henry’s game. He continues to play and rely on accuracy rather than distance to get around the golf course. Plus, he’s a solid ball-striker, ranking 30th on the PGA Tour in strokes gained on approaches to the green.

On top of that, Henry also has a solid short game, ranking 26th on the tour in scrambling percentage and 23rd in strokes gained around the green. His game seems well-suited to links golf in theory, but the results have yet to show it.

Nonetheless, Henry has the ability to turn things around and win golf’s oldest major championship. He’s a four-time PGA Tour winner, but is a 110-1 long shot for this to be his career-defining event.

DraftKings odds to win: +11000

Jack Mirko is a golf staff writer for SB Nation Playing Through. Follow For more golf articles, follow us on Twitter Jack Mirko In the same way.