In the New York gubernatorial race, Republican Bruce Blakeman is narrowing the gap with Democratic incumbent Gov. Kathy Hochul. With the election on November 3rd, a recent poll indicates that Hochul leads by just 9 points — 50% to 41% — which marks a tighter race compared to last year’s situation with Lee Zeldin, according to a Siena University survey.
This time last year, Hochul had a much more considerable lead over Zeldin, sitting at 54% to 37%. So, while the gap has significantly reduced, Blakeman still has some catching up to do. In last month’s polling, Hochul held a 10-point lead over Blakeman, which suggests he has made minimal progress but is still lagging.
Interestingly, Hochul’s popularity appears to be mixed; only 48% of voters view her favorably, with an equal percentage holding an unfavorable view. Her approval rating is also below 50%, with 48% approving and 47% disapproving of her performance.
On the flip side, Blakeman faces a distinct challenge — almost one-third of voters either do not know him or lack an opinion of him, especially with just 41 days until the election. Currently, 35% have a favorable view of him, while 34% do not.
Regarding the overall direction of New York, only 38% believe the state is on the right track, with 49% thinking it’s headed in the wrong direction as Hochul seeks a second term. This sentiment is mirrored at the national level, where just 28% feel the US is on the right path versus 66% who believe it’s not.
Pollster Steven Greenberg notes that with six weeks to go, the race favors both candidates. Hochul has the support of half the electorate, which is slightly encouraging, while Blakeman’s single-digit deficit in a heavily Democratic state is noteworthy. Notably, voters favor Hochul on several key issues — for example, when it comes to making prices affordable, 49% support her over Blakeman’s 40%. Similarly, she is preferred for keeping New Yorkers safe by 49% to 43%.
Issues regarding undocumented immigrants also show an edge for Hochul, with 47% saying she would handle it better compared to 43% for Blakeman. The poll does point out that Trump’s backing of Blakeman might be more of a disadvantage for him than the endorsement from radical socialist Mayor Zohran Mamdani is for Hochul.
In fact, many voters see Trump’s support as a detrimental factor in Blakeman’s campaign, with nearly half indicating it negatively impacts him, including 69% of Democrats. Conversely, half believe Mamdani’s endorsement positively assists Hochul, backed by 72% of Democrats.
Hochul is committing significant funds to TV ads associating Blakeman with Trump, while Blakeman’s campaign is pushing back, suggesting Hochul is influenced by Mamdani. It seems to be Hochul’s race to lose, as, despite only half of voters backing her, two-thirds predict she will win, with even a notable portion of Republicans agreeing.
In New York City, Hochul’s support is much stronger, leading 61% to Blakeman’s 27%. However, in the downstate suburbs, she only narrowly leads at 48% to 46%. Upstate, Blakeman has a slight advantage at 47% to 44%. To have a shot, Blakeman needs to either gain ground among Hochul’s voters in the city or find a way to bolster his support in the suburbs, particularly in Long Island, where he is the Nassau County executive.
Earlier polling from Republican sources during the summer had suggested a closer race, with one survey indicating only a 4-point difference. Blakeman’s campaign released a poll claiming he trailed Hochul by just 4 points as well. Other polls by GOP-aligned groups also showed similarly close margins.
This Siena University Poll was conducted from September 11 to 17, surveying 1,144 likely voters via phone and text. It carries a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points.
