SAN FRANCISCO — This weekend is shaping up to be crucial for the Giants, and not just because they’re playing against the Rockies, who are in last place.
The real action kicks off bright and early Saturday morning in the draft room.
Buster Posey, after a challenging season filled with some questionable calls, will be working alongside amateur scouting director Michael Holmes. By around 11 a.m., he’ll be making one of the most significant decisions in his role as head of baseball operations for the Giants.
This is a big moment for Posey. The Giants hold the No. 4 overall pick in the MLB Draft, the highest they’ve had since 2018. With a lot riding on this pick, Posey will be relying on extensive preparations from a dedicated team of scouts and analysts. Nevertheless, it’s ultimately his call.
The last time San Francisco got a top-five pick was when they chose Joey Bart, who now finds himself in his third organization. And a decade ago, Posey was hoisting World Series trophies.
Despite efforts by MLB to elevate the draft, such as aligning it with All-Star Week and showing the first round on NBC/Peacock, it still lags behind the NBA and NFL in terms of excitement. Yet, the outcome of these picks can be monumental — think Will Clark in 1985 at No. 2, versus the disappointment of Jason Grilli who was picked No. 4 in 1997.
The Giants have faced challenges in identifying and nurturing top talent through their drafts and international signings. It’s evident in their recent free agency decisions, investing heavily in players like Willie Adames and welcoming Rafael Devers’ hefty contract.
Half of the top draft picks made under former GM Farhan Zaidi — Reggie Crawford, Will Bednar, and Hunter Bishop — seem unlikely to reach the majors, while Patrick Bailey and James Tibbs III have already moved on from the team. Bryce Eldridge’s case is still pending, but he was a promising 16th overall pick in 2023.
Interestingly, Michael Holmes, who joined from the Athletics in 2022, is among those still from the Zaidi era — including Posey’s right-hand man Zach Minassian.
The Giants’ farm system recently got a boost, being rated as the 10th best by Baseball America, enhancing their chances with top high school and college players. The recruitment of talented teenagers over the past two cycles and successful international signings have contributed to this rebound, with young prospects like Josuar Gonzalez and Luis Hernandez emerging as top talents.
Now, with the chance to snag top prospects, this is a pivotal moment for San Francisco. Their poor record has gifted them the No. 4 pick this year, but they’re unlikely to pick higher than No. 10 next year, making this selection vital.
The Giants also hold the No. 29 pick, thanks to trading Bailey to the Guardians, giving them two spots in the top 30 and a decent bonus pool of over $17 million, ranking them ahead of most teams.
The situation is further complicated by a consensus on the top three players available. Posey might leverage that bonus pool to entice a promising local high school player like Tyler Spangler or Archer Horne to forgo college commitments, similar to how Kyle Harrison did in 2020.
While top draft prospects often have a long road to the majors, teams usually prioritize the best available talents rather than drafting purely based on team needs. So even though the system is filled with up-and-coming position players, there’s still room for a choice like Jackson Flora, a local college pitcher whose story could resonate with fans.
Last year, the Giants focused on position players with good contact skills, selecting Gavin Killen among their first six picks. If they decide to go a different route at No. 4, Jacob Lombard or Eric Booth Jr. — both raw but with significant potential — could be on their radar.
It would be quite the story if the Giants managed to land UCLA shortstop Roch Cholowski, Grady Emerson, or Van Lackey from Georgia Tech. Cholowski, in particular, is someone they’re keen to add to the tradition of talented UCLA shortstops and has a fan in Brandon Crawford, who even met him personally.
Whoever the Giants end up selecting, Posey will need to get it right this time. The clock is ticking.
