OTTAWA – In a dramatic reversal, the governing liberals who have been following the official opposition Conservatives in polls earlier this year appear poised to take office for the fourth consecutive time, thanks to President Donald Trump’s threat to the economy and sovereignty, according to the election clock.
“It looks like there’s a liberal government. This seems to be pointing to the polls. If conservatives win, that’s a huge surprise,” Angus Reed, founder and chairman of the Angus Reed Institute, told Fox News Digital.
A poll from the Angus Reed Institute released on December 30th revealed that conservatives were in the vast majority of territory with 45% support compared to liberals. The poll released on Saturday showed that liberals took a 4-point lead with 44% and 40%.
Trump is set at the heart of the Canadian Prime Minister’s election debate
Canadian liberal leader Prime Minister Mark Carney will speak out after being elected as the new liberal leader in Ottawa on March 9, 2025. (Getty Images)
“This was a truly extraordinary election because by all rights, Canadians had it with their awakened policies and their mistakes and didn’t like Trudeau,” Reid said.
He explained that political dynamics had changed when Justin Trudeau announced that he had resigned as Canada’s 23rd Prime Minister and Trump as the 47th president in January, and former central bank governor Mark Carney had become his successor in March as prime minister and Liberal leader.
On April 3, 2025, a truck with vehicles will cross the border of Blue Water Bridge, which runs from Sarnia, Ontario, Canada, to the US. (AFP with Getty Images by Geoff Robins/AFP)
“Whether it’s between tariffs and the threat of annexation, Trump has become the most important issue in the country overnight,” Reid said. “It gave Mark Kearney the opportunity from the first gate that we’re not going to put up with this. We’re a sovereign nation and we’re going to fight.”
The campaign is a two-party competition between the Liberals and the conservatives, led by two completely different leaders who focus on strengths their critics consider to be weaknesses.
Carney, a 60-year-old former senior executive at Goldman Sachs, who was never elected before gaining liberal leadership, asked voters to consider his experiences, including running a central bank in Canada and the UK during an economic crisis supported by Trump’s threat.
Canadian conservative leader Pierre Poliever will hold a press conference on Sunday, December 1, 2024 at the Hotel Ballroom in Ottawa, Canada. (Ustin Tang/The Canadian Press via AP)
However, his detractors have spent quite a bit of time outside of Canada, accusing him of not being contacted and “not connecting with ordinary people.”
Meanwhile, Poilierbre’s message to voters is that he is an agent of “change.” However, his opponents argue that the 45-year-old conservative leader is part of the political establishment and has spent almost half of his life as a member of Congress since his first election in 2004.
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The results of the IPSOS poll conducted in Global News in Canada, released on April 21, showed a narrow three-point lead of 38% for liberals, 41% over conservatives.
Darrell Bricker, CEO of Ipsos Global Public Affairs, told Fox News Digital that the Liberals had 12 points ahead of the conservatives in mid-April, losing both positive and negative because of Donald Trump’s effectiveness.
From left: Canadian Conservative leader Pierre Poilierre, President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Mark Carney. (Sean Kilpatrick/Pool/AFP via Getty Images: Photo by Dave Chan/AFP via Getty Images | Photo by Al Drago of the Washington Post via Getty Images)
“When Donald Trump is on the news about 51 states, it brings back the focus back to the main issues that liberals are dealing with him,” Bricker said.
“However, over the past two weeks, Donald Trump has been dark in Canada. He’s focused on Harvard’s US government funding, and as far as we’re talking about trade, it’s about global trade transactions.”
According to Bricker, many Canadians have returned to the major affordable pre-Trump issues through the lens of the Liberal Party, which runs government over the past decade.
Ultimately, the outcome of Monday’s general election will be determined by geography, according to Bricker. In Ontario, particularly Toronto and the surrounding so-called 905 regions, national votes are “win or lose.”
“905 has voted overwhelmingly three times for Justin Trudeau’s liberals,” Bricker said. “If they do that again, the Liberal Party will win for the fourth consecutive year in office.”
Canadian new prime minister and Trump critic Mark Carney have been accused of not being contacted by “normal people.”
Hundreds of people are opposed to the threat of our tariff and annexation in the Manitoba Legislature. Hundreds gathered in Manitoba’s provincial legislature for a “Canadian rally” to show national pride and protest the threat of US tariffs and annexation. The event featured ball hockey, burgers and music, and participants wore red and white clothing to confirm Canada’s sovereignty. (Photo by Lyle Stafford/SOPA Images/Lightrocket
Last week, Carney said he will meet with Trump “within a few days” after the election as part of a “ambitious and broad discussion” about new trade and security agreements between Canada and the United States.
Reed said the liberal improved show not only warmed Canadians to Carney, but conservative leader Pierre Poilierel failed to turn the dial with a focus on the consumer carbon tax. The liberal leader cancelled as prime minister on April 1, and Trudeau has long reflected, rather than challenge Trump’s threat.
Irony, in Reid’s view, “Trump has put a personal campaign in Canada where his stepbrothers can be in many ways,” he said. “Mini Trump” and his “confrontation,” “small government stance” – “I would certainly like to see Trump-esque policies that American rights might want to see in Canada and the right Canadians.”
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According to the Canadian election, record 7.3 million Canadians voted in advance polls over Easter weekend.
