Despite facing an 18-point deficit in Game 7, the Cleveland Cavaliers showed resilience and kept their playoff hopes alive with a stunning 106-94 victory over the Orlando Magic on Sunday.
Now, the Cavaliers face a formidable challenge in the Celtics, a team that finished the regular season with the fifth-highest point differential (11.34) in NBA history.
As a result, it’s no surprise that Boston is the overwhelming favorite to win the series at odds as high as -3000 on FanDuel.
However, the Celtics will face a big challenge as they will start the series without Kristaps Porzingis. The Latvian center’s absence in Game 4 of the first-round series against Miami due to a right calf strain could change the course of the series.
Rehabilitation has already begun, but there is no plan for a return yet. Will his absence be enough to level the playing field in this series?
Let’s take a look.
Cavaliers vs. Celtics Eastern Conference Semifinals
| team | series winner | series spread | Total number of games |
|---|---|---|---|
| cavaliers | +1120 | +2.5 (+145) | o4.5 (-240) |
| celtics | -3000 | -2.5 (-170) | u4.5 (+160) |
No problem without Porzingi
The first step in analyzing this series is to look at how Porzingis’ injury will affect the Celtics. Boston played 25 games without him during the regular season, going 21-4.
Although it’s a small sample size, their winning percentage was higher in games without him (.840) than when he was on the court (43-14, .754).
Additionally, the Celtics had a higher net rating in the games he missed than when he was available (+12.6 vs. +11.3).
Therefore, this number suggests that the Celtics should have enough depth to overcome Porzingis’ injury.
Cavs vs. Celtics regular season series
These teams played three games during the regular season and Boston went 2-1 with a net rating of +5.3.
However, both Celtics’ wins may have been helped by the peculiarities of the schedule, as both teams played two games over three days in Boston. And both meetings took place in December, when Cleveland wasn’t playing its best basketball.
The Cavaliers are in the middle of a 1-3 road trip, dropping their record to 13-12. Cleveland then went 22-4 in its next 26 games.
In the third matchup, the Cavaliers held serve at home and won 105-104, ending Boston’s winning streak at 11. Cleveland won the game without its best player, Donovan Mitchell, who was out with a knee injury.
The Cavaliers also lost forward Evan Mobley to an ankle injury in the third quarter of the game. Mobley suffered a knee injury against the Celtics in December that kept him out of action.
Interestingly, the Celtics have essentially given it their all in each game this season, with all three of their best players in Porzingis, Jayson Tatum, and Jaylen Brown participating in the game.
Cleveland could benefit from perimeter shooting
Porzingis’ injury will definitely impact Boston’s floor spacing, especially on the perimeter. Porzingis made 39% (5.1) of his shot attempts (13.2) from beyond the arc and shot 37.5% from 3-point range.
Al Horford (8.6 PPG) will likely start in place of Porzingis (20.1 PPG), so expect Tatum and Brown to play more prominent roles on offense.
We know that the Celtics will likely stick to their preferred style of play, attacking aggressively on the perimeter. Cleveland must be able to match that aggression on perimeter defense or match Boston shot-for-shot.
The Cavaliers likely opt for the latter, considering they outscored Boston in three games from beyond the arc (50-of-120, 41.7% vs. 47-of-118, 39.8%).
Cavaliers vs. Celtics series predictions
Cleveland has a path to be competitive in this series, especially with Porzingis out. However, according to ESPN Bet, teams that are at least -1400 to win the series have won consecutive games since 1990, going 18-0.
Based on these overwhelming numbers, it’s hard to see anywhere but the Celtics in this matchup. Home court advantage should be enough to win and advance to the next round.
Still, it won’t be an easy task as the Cavaliers are good enough to win some games in this series.
Do you want to bet on the NBA?
Cavaliers vs. Celtics best bets
Cleveland’s series price of +3.5 games is too good to pass up, even with juice down to -225.
Bettors can also find additional value in choosing the exact number of games in a series. If you expect the Cavaliers to win some games, you’re essentially saying they’re unlikely to be swept.
The series is likely to last six to seven games, and bettors can profit even by betting on both outcomes.
The odds for a 6-game series are +400 and the odds for a 7-game series are +550. Both options offer half-unit wager value.
Here are my betting recommendations for this series (odds via FanDuel):
- Cavaliers +3.5 games (-225)
- 6 games left in the series (+400)
- 7 games left in the series (+550)
