Chances of XRP ETF approval drop 10% before important SEC and ETF deadlines next week

The impending deadline for the Spot XRP ETF applications from major asset managers like Grayscale, Franklin Templeton, and Bitwise is fueling speculation about SEC approval. This comes amid proposed legal settlements with the SEC suggested by Ripple.

On the forecasting platform Polymarket, the odds of approval by 2025 initially surged to 98% in early June, but have recently dropped to 88%.

Even though regulatory challenges remain, the proposed resolution of the SEC’s lawsuit against Ripple has alleviated one of the significant legal uncertainties. This lawsuit claims that XRP is an unregistered security.

In March, Ripple and the SEC announced a $50 million settlement, but it hit a snag when Judge Analisa Torres declined a joint motion to amend the final verdict in May, citing procedural issues under Rule 60.

Following that, the parties sought limited remand through the Second Circuit and paused the appeal for 60 days. As of mid-June, no court orders have finalized the settlement, leaving it technically unresolved.

The involved parties intend to halt the appeal, yet these actions are still in progress and depend on forthcoming court rulings. Judge Torres’ earlier 2023 decision stated that the program and public distributions of XRP did not qualify as securities transactions, although it deemed some institutional sales as violations of securities law. This judgment remains a significant reference point.

The SEC is scheduled to provide a procedural status report to the US Court of Appeals by June 16. However, this update probably won’t clarify the lawsuit’s outcome or officially confirm the settlement’s approval.

The ongoing legal frustrations have evidently been disheartening for XRP analysts, prompting forecasts of volatile price movements tied to ETF approval.

Some traders believe that successful ETF approval might trigger substantial price surges for XRP, with estimates suggesting potential price targets between $20 and $27. However, these predictions are speculative and depend heavily on market sentiment. Analysts should be cautious, given the historical performances of Bitcoin and Ethereum post-ETF approval, as significant price corrections might follow initial gains.

This “approval and crash” theory draws comparisons to previously observed market behaviors surrounding the launch of the Spot Bitcoin ETF and Ethereum Merge event. The usual volatility, coupled with a robust retail investor base, could exacerbate these price fluctuations.

XRP Institutional Foundation

While the potential ETF outcome remains uncertain, XRP is concurrently establishing a foundation for institutional adoption. On May 19, CME Group introduced an XRP Futures Contract, offering a regulated platform for derivatives trading.

Additionally, several companies, like Webus, Vivopower, and Wellgistics, have pledged over $450 million to their Corporate Treasury Departments for payment and reserve purposes.

The XRP ledger is also being utilized for real-world asset tokenization, as seen in the Guggenheim Ministry of Finance Services which issues digital commercial papers on the platform.

These advancements hint at a growing institutional significance for assets, separate from immediate ETF outcomes.

The SEC faces a decision deadline on June 17 regarding Franklin Templeton’s Spot XRP ETF application.

XRP ETF and SEC Milestones

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