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Changes in US relations with India and Pakistan during Trump’s second term

Changes in US relations with India and Pakistan during Trump's second term

Trump and Modi Meet at G7 Summit Amidst Rising Tensions

This week, President Donald Trump met with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi at the G7 summit in France, marking their first in-person meeting since February 2025. Instead of the usual bear hug, Modi approached Trump with a friendly smile and handshake.

The two leaders engaged in bilateral discussions on Wednesday. Although the atmosphere was cordial, it came against a backdrop of increasing tensions. As India aims to mend relations with the U.S., its historical rival Pakistan has been busy strengthening its own diplomatic ties, complicating matters for India.

For years, India has sought to isolate Pakistan on the international stage, considering it a destabilizing force. Prime Minister Modi asserted, “India has succeeded in isolating you and we will ramp up our efforts.” Yet, a decade later, Pakistan is emerging as a significant global player.

Initially, Modi had sought to engage Pakistan, but he later took a firmer stance, believing that “terrorism and dialogue cannot coexist.” The U.S. generally favors India, with past presidents—including Trump, Biden, and Obama—visiting the country during their terms.

Modi cultivated a strong relationship with Trump early in his presidency, being one of the first leaders welcomed to the White House. However, this relationship has experienced strain over the past year as Islamabad attempts to bolster its credibility.

Sid Dubey, a professor at Bennett University in India, noted that India misread Trump in his second term, relying too much on their past friendship. “They haven’t even started to recover from that yet,” he commented.

Despite strains in his relationship with Modi, Trump has been vocal about Pakistan’s leadership. The May 2025 ceasefire announcement regarding the conflict over Kashmir further complicated India’s position. Islamabad lauded Trump for his role, even nominating him for a Nobel Peace Prize, but New Delhi dismissed this, insisting the ceasefire arose from direct talks.

The situation has only worsened since then, fueled by Trump’s tariffs on India and tensions over visa policies. Dubey remarked, “When President Trump claimed credit for ending the conflict, it upset India significantly. The tariffs felt like a double blow.” Meanwhile, India finds its own position weakened as it deals with the ramifications of the Iran conflict and energy concerns.

Just last week, a U.S. attack resulted in the deaths of three Indian sailors, further inflaming outrage in India. New Delhi expressed its concerns forcefully, arguing that it was caught in a conflict it didn’t instigate.

Pakistan, surprisingly, has maneuvered to improve its standing with Washington while fortifying ties with nations like China and Iran. Analysts suggest that Islamabad’s recent diplomatic agility has challenged India’s strategy, which includes deepening partnerships with the U.S. and other South Asian countries.

Despite past criticisms, Trump has expressed admiration for Pakistani officials like army chief Asim Munir, which signals a notable shift in dynamics. Trump described Munir as an “extraordinary human being,” and their meeting highlighted a positive perception of Pakistan in the current U.S. administration.

Amid these developments, Modi remains in a delicate position as India strives to reaffirm its partnership with the U.S. Following the G7 meeting, Trump remarked positively about Modi and hinted at a future visit to India, asserting U.S. support should India face aggression.

While the governments of Pakistan and India have not provided comments on these developments, the evolving relationship among these nations is indicative of a rapidly changing geopolitical landscape.

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