Shingles Cases Decline Among Younger Generations
Millennials in the U.S. have faced their share of challenges, like entering a tough job market after the 2008 financial crisis and dealing with a burdensome system of student debt. On the upside, there’s some good news regarding health.
A comprehensive study by the Epic Health Research Network, examining medical records from over 85 million adults, has revealed a significant drop in shingles cases among individuals under 35. The researchers attribute this positive trend to the United States chickenpox vaccination program that started in 1995. This indicates that the program has been effective.
When examining data, the oldest group studied—older Gen Xers born between 1968 and 1975—reported shingles at an average rate of about 181.9 cases per 10,000 people. In stark contrast, younger adults born between 2006 and 2008 had an incidence rate that was approximately 26 times lower. For millennials born from 1986 to 1990, the figures fell to 76.7 cases per 10,000. Remarkably, after the vaccination policy became standard in the mid-90s, the rate plunged to just 17.3 cases per 10,000 for those born in 1995 and later, which is encouraging news for Gen Z as well.
Epic’s team stated, “That break coincides with the first birth cohorts eligible for routine childhood chickenpox vaccination.” They didn’t analyze whether individuals had actually received the vaccination, but the link is notable.
Impact of Vaccination
Researchers, including physician Sam Butler and data scientist Joe Deckert, suggest that the decrease in shingles cases among those born just before the 1995 policy can be linked to how flexibly the vaccination was implemented.
“The 1995 rollout also provided catch-up vaccinations for older, susceptible children, making it a gradual transition instead of a strict cutoff based on birth year,” they explained. This flexibility likely benefited older groups, including those in the 35-39 age range.
The dramatic decline, especially for those born around 1995, is worth noting. The drop between individuals born in 1991–1995 and those born in 1996–2000 saw a staggering decrease from 45.5 to 17.3 cases per 10,000—a notable 62% reduction, which stands out compared to changes in any other adjacent cohorts.
This data offers supportive evidence for the idea that early childhood vaccinations against chickenpox reduce the risk of developing shingles later on, compared to natural immunity obtained through the actual chickenpox virus.
The Ongoing Debate
These findings bolster the case for keeping early childhood vaccination policies in place in the U.S. since shingles can lead to painful rashes and additional serious conditions, including long-term nerve pain. Unfortunately, this vaccination program has faced scrutiny, especially after anti-vaccine activist Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. formed a panel last year that voted against the routine combination vaccine, which includes chickenpox, for children under four.
A U.S. District Judge in Massachusetts ruled against Kennedy’s Health and Human Services Department earlier this year, reaffirming this vaccination policy in response to litigation by the American Academy of Pediatrics. However, it is evident from ongoing legal actions that HHS remains determined in its stance.
As a spokesperson for HHS, Andrew Nixon, noted earlier this spring, “HHS looks forward to this judge’s decision being overturned just like his other attempts to keep the Trump administration from governing.”
