China’s nuclear arsenal is expanding rapidly, according to a new report from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). Published Monday.
According to the report, the number of operational nuclear warheads is increasing annually worldwide, with China’s warheads growing the fastest. The institute predicts that China’s intercontinental nuclear missile capability could grow to rival the nuclear arsenals of the United States and Russia by 2030.
“While the total number of nuclear warheads in the world continues to decline as Cold War-era arsenals are gradually dismantled, unfortunately the number of operational warheads continues to grow year on year,” SIPRI director Dan Smith said in a statement. “This trend is likely to continue, and perhaps accelerate, in the coming years, which is extremely worrying.”
The institute estimates that China’s nuclear weapons stockpile will grow from 410 to around 500 operational warheads by 2023. It also believes China is deploying nuclear warheads in peacetime, a first for the country, it said.
SIPRI predicted that while China’s total nuclear arsenal is expected to remain far smaller than that of the United States or Russia, its aggressive deployment could bring it on par with other nations’ operational arsenals in the coming years.
“China is building up its nuclear arsenal at a faster pace than any other country,” wrote Hans Kristensen, an associate senior fellow at SIPRI, “but nearly all nuclear-weapon states are planning or making major efforts to build up their nuclear arsenals.”
According to the SIPRI report, approximately 2,100 nuclear missiles are believed to be constantly deployed and operational, nearly all of which belong to the United States or Russia.
China’s military buildup comes amid escalating conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza and persistent tensions over Taiwan. China has increased its military drills near Taiwan in the last year, leading some analysts to believe it is aiming to invade the conflict country.
The projected increase is consistent with a Pentagon report released last October that said China is believed to have about 500 operational nuclear weapons. The Pentagon said China’s nuclear weapons capability could grow to about 1,000 by 2030.
The expansion of nuclear weapons also comes at a time when most countries are moving to expand or modernize their nuclear arsenals, according to SIPRI’s research. North Korea, France and India all moved to expand their nuclear arsenals in the last year, while Israel, which does not officially recognize itself as a nuclear arsenal, is believed to have been working to modernize its nuclear arsenal, according to the institute.
China continues to invest heavily in defense despite a sluggish economy and a slow recovery from the coronavirus pandemic. April SIPRI report China spends about 6% of its defense budget on defense spending, which has been increasing for 29 consecutive years.
