On Monday, China’s government unveiled alarming demographic statistics, indicating that the birth rate has plummeted to its lowest point since the 1949 communist revolution. Despite substantial efforts over the years to encourage more couples to have children, the population continues to decline.
By the close of 2025, estimates suggest China’s population will stand at 1.4 billion, reflecting a net reduction of roughly 3 million since 2024. The birth rate has dropped to 5.63 births per 1,000 individuals, marking an all-time low. Last year saw just 7.92 million births, a 17% decrease from 2024. There was, however, a slight uptick in births recently, attributed in part to favorable zodiac signs and a backlog of weddings postponed during the COVID-19 pandemic.
2025 marked the Year of the Snake. This timing could partially clarify why birth rates are down, even though state media have tried to reassure young couples that the Year of the Snake isn’t all that bad for starting families.
Stuart Gietel Basen, from the Center for Aging Science at Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, pointed out that “significant structural issues” — like economic downturns, low job prospects, challenges in home buying, and the generally competitive atmosphere in China, alongside high childcare costs — play a more crucial role than zodiac beliefs.
“Unless we address these issues, it may be tough to see meaningful increases in birth rates,” Gietel Basen warned.
China has committed substantial financial resources to combat these challenges and plans to invest even more. Recently, Reuters estimated that the cost of existing and proposed initiatives aimed at boosting birth rates could reach $25.8 billion by 2026.
This estimate includes national child subsidies introduced last year and anticipated insurance payouts. The government has indicated that by 2026, women will have “no out-of-pocket costs” during pregnancy, with full reimbursement for all medical expenses, including in vitro fertilization (IVF), through the National Health Insurance Fund.
Other Asian nations with rising birth rates, like Japan and South Korea, have also invested heavily to address economic factors linked to declining populations but haven’t experienced similar success. In fact, South Korea’s spending exceeds China’s, and Japan began its pronatalist initiatives much earlier, yet neither has managed to halt population decline.
One of China’s latest tactics to encourage childbirth involves increasing the cost of condoms, a move that has been mocked on Chinese social media. As reported, the tax exemption on contraceptives made them about 13% more expensive starting January 1st.
A commentator remarked, “What gives people confidence to have kids isn’t the price of condoms, but rather hope for the future.”
Some experts think that China is still grappling with the “hangover” effects of past population controls, especially stemming from the one-child policy that enforced strict population management from 1979 to 2015. After this policy ended, the state immediately began promoting larger families, but the demographic impacts have proven hard to reverse.
This challenge is compounded by a cultural preference for sons that resulted in a shortage of women of childbearing age. Furthermore, with a rising number of individuals choosing not to have families, this trend is contributing to a low birth rate issue common in many developed nations today.
Dudley L. Poston Jr., a sociologist at Texas A&M University, noted that like many countries facing similar declines, China highlights how “modernization has improved women’s educational and employment opportunities,” leading to falling birth rates as women prioritize education and careers over starting families.
Additionally, the interest in marriage appears to have waned among younger generations, a trend particularly noticeable in Asian cultures where there’s still a strong stigma against having children outside of marriage.
Poston emphasized that compared to average incomes, raising children in China is among the most expensive globally, particularly when factoring in education costs.
This declining trend is part of a “decreasing birthrate trap,” posits Poston. If birth rates dip below 1.5, reversing the trend becomes extremely challenging.
This fertility trap suggests that when birth rates linger below a certain threshold for a prolonged period, smaller family norms deepen within the culture. China’s slow economy and high childcare costs likely contribute to this issue, but economic relief may not suffice once families have adapted to smaller sizes and traditional incentives to marry and have children early in life diminish.
Looking ahead, birth rate predictions for the next year suggest a figure between 0.9 and 1.02, well below the level that could trigger a low birth rate trap. A significant number of older individuals will soon exit the workforce, with an insufficient influx of younger workers to support their benefits.
“China’s fertility decline is like a boulder rolling downhill. The one-child policy has hastened this decline, and reversing it is going to be quite challenging,” remarked Yi Fuxian, a demographic expert at the University of Wisconsin-Madison.
