Insights from a Recent Trip to China

I just got back from China, marking the first time since 2019 that a Republican House delegation has visited. Our bipartisan group had meetings with Prime Minister Li Qian and various senior officials. We aimed to push for communication on a range of issues like military dialogue, trade, nuclear proliferation, and the fentanyl crisis.

From the moment I landed, the atmosphere struck me as reminiscent of Cold War tensions. You know, concerns about security and ideological rigidity—it felt almost like stepping back into the 1980s Soviet Union.

But here’s the catch: unlike the stagnant Soviet Union, China is still on the rise. History shows that when a growing power collides with an established one, the risk of conflict goes up. My former professor at Harvard, Graham Allison, refers to this as the “Thucydides trap.” It’s a historical pattern where established powers, like Sparta, clash with rising ones, like Athens. Sparta won, but at a tremendous cost.

So, can the U.S. steer clear of conflict with China while safeguarding our interests? After my visit, I think we can, but clarity, strength, and unity are essential.

Five main insights emerged from my candid interactions in Beijing and discussions with local partners.

Firstly, we really need to boost dialogue. Without it, the potential for miscalculations grows. The last House delegation went to China six years ago, which is simply unacceptable. Members of Congress must frequently engage with both Taiwan and Beijing. Tensions in the Taiwan Strait or the South China Sea aren’t completely out of control, but we do need those high-level military lines of communication to be reestablished.

Secondly, China is indeed strong but also quite fragile. Their ultra-competitive markets can turn ideas into products swiftly. Managing six out of the world’s ten largest ports and investing nearly 3% of GDP in R&D while graduating two million STEM students a year gives them an edge. On the other hand, the same one-party control that fuels swift resource allocation has led to significant blunders. Examples include the chaotic aftermath of their zero-COVID policy and a real estate sector weighed down by massive debts exceeding 300% of GDP. They’ve experienced a population peak in 2023, and their aggressive foreign diplomacy, likened to bullying, has alienated some neighbors, including South Korea. Moreover, the stringent surveillance tactics used against citizens show a government that’s clearly uneasy.

Thirdly, strengthening local partnerships is crucial. It’s not just about military might; it’s the alliances that stand with us. The combined GDP of the U.S., Japan, South Korea, Australia, the Philippines, and India exceeds $40 trillion—more than 1 billion people don’t want to live under Beijing’s thumb. Building alliances in Asia is therefore a significant deterrent.

Fourth, we should pursue areas of mutual interest with unyielding clarity. Fentanyl overdoses claim around 100,000 American lives annually, with many chemical precursors stemming from China. If Beijing is serious about fostering a stable relationship, addressing this issue is critical. Previous collaboration on nuclear proliferation is another opportunity for partnership. Addressing such areas can foster trust leading to greater understanding.

Finally, we need to shore up America’s strength at home. We might lead China now, but our future competitiveness—especially in fields like AI and military capabilities—depends heavily on addressing self-inflicted problems at home. This involves dialing back constant lawsuits that burden us financially, halting critical infrastructure delays, and revamping military procurement. It’s vital that we view the growing national debt crisis through a national security lens.

Ultimately, the best way to prevent war with China is to prepare thoroughly—with our allies, our economy, and our determination—so that any acts of aggression become unlikely.

This isn’t about siege or limitation; it’s about maintaining freedom, preventing coercion, and ensuring peace. During the Cold War, American strength and alliances, along with confidence in our values, prevailed. Right now, we stand in a hard peace, not a Cold War. We need to collaborate with global partners to guide our ambitions towards peaceful resolutions.

For that reason, future Congressional delegations to Beijing need to become a regular occurrence.