China Reenters The Oil Market As Hormuz Turmoil Drives Crude Prices Toward $110

China Reenters The Oil Market As Hormuz Turmoil Drives Crude Prices Toward $110

After several months of relying on its own crude reserves, China is re-engaging with the global oil market, introducing a new layer of demand as disruptions from the ongoing war in Iran cause supplies to dwindle and prices to rise.

As the leading crude importer worldwide, China had tempered global market dynamics earlier this year by significantly reducing its oil purchases, a response to the conflicts in the Middle East that impacted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. In the second quarter, Chinese crude imports fell to an average of 8.1 million barrels per day, which represents a 32% decrease from the first quarter, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Energy analyst David Blackmon commented to the Daily Caller News Foundation that oil prices are expected to continue rising due to unresolved issues in the Middle East, regardless of China’s actions.

China’s rekindled demand comes as the global oil market grapples with ongoing disruptions in the Middle East and decreasing inventories. On Tuesday, Brent crude prices soared to around $109 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate surpassed $106. This spike is attributed to halted Saudi oil shipments and outages affecting three Libyan oil fields.

Data indicates that Chinese crude imports experienced a 6.2% increase from July, reaching about 9 million barrels per day in August, following a remarkable 22% rise the prior month. Chinese independent refiners have also been actively acquiring oil from West Africa, Canada, and South America as they look for alternatives amidst supplies that have been disrupted or face sanctions.

Blackmon pointed out that significant contributors to the current supply constraints include the closure of Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline, threats to shipping traffic via the Bab el Mandeb Strait from Houthi forces, and risks posed by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps regarding the Strait of Hormuz. He noted that a substantial re-entry by China into oil imports could accelerate price increases; however, the overall upward trend is likely to persist.

China’s earlier retreat from the global oil market had helped moderate the impact of the Middle East supply crisis, preventing sharper price spikes. In 2025, China reached a record high of 11.6 million barrels per day in imports, bolstering its reserves while prices were still relatively low, as noted by EIA data.

Currently, China’s refineries are consuming crude oil at rates exceeding both imports and domestic production combined. In August, refiners processed about 13.91 million barrels per day, whereas imports and local production contributed roughly 13.27 million barrels per day, leading to an estimated inventory draw of around 640,000 barrels per day, Reuters reported.

Stuart Turley, president of Sandstone Group and host of the Energy News Beat podcast, expressed to the DCNF that there shouldn’t be a rapid spike in oil prices at this stage, as refinery operations are running intensely. He elaborated that while China will continue to purchase oil, these acquisitions will be strategic rather than blanket buys.

Turley also noted the ongoing flow of Canadian crude into the United States and storage levels held by refiners as potential shields against prompt shortages. Yet, there remains a significant risk regarding the conditions post-crude processing at refineries.

“Refined products are a critical point in the global markets, and any refinery running hot will break down,” Turley warned. “We have numerous refineries slated for maintenance soon, and there are concerns they might not handle it well.”

He further emphasized that refinery disruptions could become a vital concern. While crude oil itself might find a way to market, the operational reliability of refineries often requires years to establish.

This distinction gains importance as reductions in crude supplies collide with soaring demand for refined products like diesel. According to EIA data, U.S. refineries operated at 97.6% of their productive capacity in early September. Consequently, the national average price for diesel reached a staggering $6.285 per gallon, underscoring the implications of unanticipated refinery outages or extended maintenance periods.

James Taylor, president of The Heartland Institute, commented, “China understands that oil production is essential for both domestic economic power and global influence. By ramping up its crude oil purchases, they highlight the necessity for American policymakers to eliminate barriers to U.S. oil production.”

He added, “Oil is a global commodity; thus, production or export issues anywhere impact prices domestically. Nonetheless, robust U.S. oil output ensures that the benefits of elevated global oil prices are reaped locally rather than internationally.”

Moreover, China is increasingly re-establishing itself as a significant exporter of refined products. According to S&P Global Commodity Insights, oil-product exports from China surged 12.7% year-over-year in August, reaching 6.01 million metric tons—the highest figure since March 2024.

This renewed interest in crude comes amid a backdrop of waning protections previously shielding American consumers from the earlier Middle Eastern supply shocks. In August alone, global oil inventories plummeted by approximately 3.1 million barrels per day, marking their lowest level since 2023, while the U.S. has relied heavily on its Strategic Petroleum Reserve throughout the conflict. Additionally, attacks on Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline, a crucial route designed to avoid the Strait of Hormuz, have compounded these issues.

China had previously alleviated some market pressure by relying on its own reserves, avoiding the need to compete for extra barrels in the international market. At the outset of the conflict, Beijing possessed an estimated 1.5 billion barrels in storage and depended significantly on these reserves as global oil markets faced tumult.

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