Rubio Critiques Nuclear Arms Policy Amid China’s Expansion

Secretary of State Marco Rubio released a paper on Friday stating that the Trump administration is not planning to pursue a new nuclear arms reduction agreement exclusively with Russia. He emphasized that China’s rapid nuclear expansion has rendered such an agreement outdated.

Rubio’s remarks were shared on the State Department’s Substack following the end of the Obama-era New START Treaty, which formerly placed voluntary limits on the deployment of intercontinental ballistic missiles and other strategic nuclear weapons by the U.S. and Russia. Despite Russia’s calls for an extension of the treaty before its February 4 deadline, President Vladimir Putin announced that Russia would disregard the treaty’s restrictions starting in 2023.

During his first term, Trump often expressed skepticism concerning the value of nuclear arms limitation agreements if they did not factor in China. A 2024 report from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute highlighted that China is expanding its nuclear arsenal more rapidly than any other nation, reportedly adding around 100 nuclear warheads annually. China has consistently rejected calls for limits on its nuclear capabilities, arguing that it is still a “developing” nation, not comparable to Russia or the U.S.

In his paper, Rubio dismissed the notion that China poses a lesser nuclear threat. He suggested a new framework that accounts for the reality of facing two nuclear powers—Russia and China.

Rubio stated, “China’s swift and unpredictable nuclear arms growth since the implementation of New START has made previous arms control models, focused solely on U.S. and Russian agreements, obsolete.” He noted that China’s stockpile has increased from roughly 200 warheads in 2020 to over 600 currently, projecting it could exceed 1,000 by 2030.

He continued, “Arms control agreements that overlook China’s military expansion, supported by Russia, will inevitably compromise the security of the U.S. and its allies.”

A senior U.S. diplomat indicated that the Trump administration is prepared for careful discussions before establishing a successor agreement to New START, emphasizing that such negotiations typically take years. However, he also clarified that the U.S. will not endorse any agreements detrimental to its interests or that disregard compliance issues.

Rubio asserted, “Russia and China shouldn’t think they can sit back while the U.S. neglects its responsibilities and grows its nuclear arsenal. We will keep a robust, reliable, and modern nuclear deterrent, but we will also seek every possible way to achieve the President’s vision of a world free from these lethal weapons.”

China has consistently turned down pressure to limit its nuclear arsenal, reiterating its stance even after the expiration of the New START treaty. On Thursday, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian reiterated that there is no need for international restrictions on China’s nuclear forces since the country follows a self-imposed no-first-use policy.

Lin stated, “China will always act responsibly regarding nuclear weapons. Following our defensive nuclear strategy and the no-first-use policy, we have committed not to use or threaten to use nuclear weapons against non-nuclear states or nuclear-weapon-free zones.”

He maintained that China’s nuclear capabilities are maintained at a level necessary for national security and that the country does not intend to engage in an arms race with any nation. However, he acknowledged that the end of New START is viewed unfavorably from the perspective of the Communist Party.

Chinese leader Xi Jinping reportedly discussed New START in a virtual meeting with President Putin recently. While China’s Foreign Ministry didn’t elaborate on this, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov confirmed that the matter was addressed, describing Xi’s view on the treaty’s conclusion as negative.

The Chinese government has historically been reluctant to engage in nuclear arms control discussions. Still, there are signs of potential reconsideration; a state-controlled media outlet suggested that Trump’s invitation for China to participate in arms discussions reflects its rising global influence.

According to state media, “All parties, including the U.S. and Russia, recognize that the constructive resolution of these issues cannot happen without China’s involvement, requiring full communication and dialogue with Beijing.” This framing positions China as a crucial player in international relations and an essential support for nations facing contemporary challenges.