The Super Bowl is all about prop betting.
There are only a limited number of ways to bet on the 49ers vs. Chiefs team and total, so you need to dig deep into the widely available player market to find as many NFL bets as possible before the greatest gambling sport enters its long offseason. there is.
Here at the New York Post, we explore every available player prop market.
In this article, we’ll explain how to bet on San Francisco’s all-world running back, Christian McCaffrey.
Here are three ways I can bet on McCaffrey in the 2024 Super Bowl.
Christian McCaffrey Prop No. 1: 18.5+ rushing attempts.
Kyle Shanahan’s wide zone rushing offense is almost interchangeable.
No matter which running back is brought in, that player will be able to control explosive rushing plays with the blocking ability of San Francisco’s wide receivers.
This year, Chaney rotated carries between McCaffrey, Elijah Mitchell, Jordan Mason and Deebo Samuel.
However, McCaffrey is a different animal.
He is arguably the best running back in the league and was named the 49ers’ MVP several times this season.
This is the Super Bowl. After Sunday, there is a six-month break. It’s time to give it your all and get the ball to your best player as often as possible. Slam McCaffrey to the ground if you want.
And since Kansas City’s run defense is questionable at best, expect Shanahan to employ a run-heavy game plan.
The Chiefs rank 15th in rushing completion percentage, 27th in rushing defense DVOA, 28th in EPA per rush and 25th in yards per carry.
The defensive line ranked just 18th in defensive line yards, and the linebacking core had 17 total missed tackles.
He can cut through the Chiefs’ front seven like a block of soft cheese, and I don’t expect him to have any problems against San Francisco’s league-best rushing attack – the 49ers rank 1st in EPA per rush and 1st in rush completion percentage. Ranked 2nd in rushing and 2nd in violation DVOA.
However, as I have hinted, I do not expect any effort by the committee.
I expect Brock Purdy to repeatedly give the ball to his best player behind an offensive line that is second best in the league by line yards.
Ready to start betting on the 2024 Super Bowl?
McCaffrey only reached 19 carries in seven of 18 games this year. But while he scored 18 points or more in three of six games without Mitchell, I don’t expect Mitchell to be a factor in the Super Bowl.
I expect Shanahan to put as many of his best players into his soft front seven as possible in Super Bowl 58, and I’m making two correlated bets based on that assumption.
First, I’m betting on McCaffrey over 18.5 carries. Who should do well?
Second, I’m betting on less than 1.5 carries for Mitchell, but Mitchell shouldn’t be a factor since McCaffrey will be the only 3-down back.
A rush attempt would have to be made by someone with a rush-heavy script and would be expected to be one-sided.
pick:
- Christian McCaffrey over 18.5 carries (-115, bet 365)
- Elijah Mitchell under 1.5 carries (-120, BetMGM)
Christian McCaffrey Prop No. 2: First rushing attempt over 3.5 yards.
We established that Shanahan should follow a rush-heavy, McCaffrey-heavy game plan.
Shanahan scripted the first few drives, but I’m sure he’ll script some of the better rushing plays for McCaffrey to get off to a hot start against a weak defense.
According to Nick Giffen of the Action Network, McCaffrey averaged more than 5 yards per carry on 62 scripted rushing plays, which Giffen said he did in the first 12 plays of each game. He explains that it was a rush attempt.
Additionally, McCaffrey eclipsed the 3-yard rush on 31 of his 48 scripted carries, his first, second or third carry of the game, and had a 65% hit rate, also according to Giffen. did.
Finally, also per Giffen, McCaffrey ran for four or more yards on his first carry in 11 of the 16 games he played with top tackle Trent Williams this year.
Shanahan needs to attack Kansas City on the ground early and often, and his scripted plays are designed to put his players in the best possible scenario.
All things considered, McCaffrey should pick up a big gain on his first rush. Or at least he should get a reasonable gain from the line of scrimmage that won’t get him stuffed within 3 yards.
choose:
- Christian McCaffrey, first rush over 3.5 yards (-115, DraftKings)
