Poll: Ciattarelli and Sherrill Tied in New Jersey Gubernatorial Race
According to a recent poll, Republican candidate Jack Ciattarelli and Democrat Mikie Sherrill are neck-and-neck in the contest for the New Jersey governorship.
The Emerson College/PIX11/The Hill poll that came out on Thursday shows both candidates receiving 43% of the vote, with 11% of participants still undecided. This marks the first prominent poll that has Sherrill not leading in either the primary or the general election.
“This is a closely contested race in the Garden State,” commented Spencer Kimball, the executive director of Emerson College Polling. “Younger voters, those under 40, heavily favor Sherrill, leading 58% to 24%. As we look at those in their 40s, the margin narrows to seven points, with Sherrill at 47% and Ciattarelli at 40%. In contrast, Ciattarelli gains a solid lead among voters over 50, where he outpaces Sherrill 52% to 36%.”
Kimball also highlighted a noticeable gender gap in the responses. Women tend to support Sherrill by a margin of ten points, 46% to 36%, while men favor Ciattarelli by 12 points, standing at 51% to 39%. Interestingly, women are more than twice as likely to be undecided, with 15% compared to just 6% of men.
Ciattarelli, who served as a state representative from 2012 to 2018, is making another bid for governor. He previously ran a medical publishing company that he sold in 2017 and is a certified public accountant.
Sherrill brings a diverse background to her candidacy, having graduated from the U.S. Naval Academy in 1994 and served nearly ten years on active duty. She transitioned to law after her military service and was elected to the U.S. House of Representatives in 2018. However, her wealth has drawn scrutiny, with reports showing a significant rise in her net worth since taking office, which critics attribute to insider trading related to her husband’s stock dealings. Sherrill, however, contends that any transactions are linked to her husband’s earnings and denies any allegations of trading individual stocks.
In younger demographics, Sherrill is performing strongly, capturing 56% of voters aged 18 to 29, while Ciattarelli garnered only 18% in the same group. This illustrates a clear divide, with Sherrill appealing more to younger constituents and Ciattarelli resonating with older voters.
“Both President Trump and Governor Murphy are struggling among New Jersey voters. Sherrill tries to connect Ciattarelli with Trump, while Ciattarelli works to associate Sherrill with Murphy and the rising cost of living in the state,” Kimball noted.
Trump took to Truth social to express his endorsement for Ciattarelli following the poll results.
New Jersey has generally leaned Democrat, although support has dwindled in recent years. The state showed a solid backing for Hillary Clinton by 14 points in 2016 and Joe Biden by 16 in 2020, but the margin reduced to about six points for Kamala Harris.
Recent events, including a notable assassination attempt on Trump and the recent assassination of Charlie Kirk, have further complicated voter loyalties. Between 2020 and 2024, the Democrats saw a drop of 2.1 million registered voters, while Republicans gained 2.4 million, indicating a substantial shift in voter sentiment.
The poll surveyed 935 potential voters from September 22 to September 23, with a margin of error of ±3.1 percentage points.
