New Jersey Gubernatorial Race Tightens
The New Jersey gubernatorial race is shaping up to be quite competitive, as a recent poll shows Democrat Mikie Sherrill with 49% support and Republican Jack Ciatarelli at 48%. This unexpected development caught many by surprise on Thursday.
The Emerson College/Pix11/The Hill survey revealed that when undecided voters shared their leanings, Sherrill actually gained a slight edge, increasing from 50% to 48% overall.
This poll marks a significant moment for Ciatarelli, who has closed the gap from a substantial 20-point deficit Sherrill enjoyed earlier in the summer.
As the campaign nears its end, voter turnout will likely play a crucial role in the results.
Sherrill, a state representative from North Jersey, has a strong following among women, leading by 18 points. Conversely, Ciatarelli, who also ran for governor in 2021, has a 16-point advantage among male voters.
Spencer Kimball, executive director of the Emerson College Poll, noted, “Ciatarelli’s lead among men has grown by four points since last month, while Sherrill’s lead among women has increased by eight points.” It’s fascinating to see these shifts in support.
A significant majority, 52% of voters, highlighted the economy as their primary concern in a state known for its high tax rates, particularly in property taxes.
In terms of other issues, only 14% of respondents viewed threats to democracy as their top worry, followed by housing prices at 11%, immigration policy at 5%, and health care also at 5%.
Both candidates appear to be viewed somewhat neutrally: 47% of voters have a favorable impression of Sherrill while 47% view her unfavorably. For Ciatarelli, the numbers are similar—48% have a positive view, and 48% view him negatively.
Interestingly, Democratic Governor Phil Murphy, who is stepping down due to term limits, isn’t exactly popular; only 34% of voters approve of his performance, while 50% disapprove, leaving a small percentage unsure.
On the flip side, former President Donald Trump has a 45% approval rating, which seems to set him apart, even if it’s not stellar. Around 53% of voters disapprove of his performance.
The Emerson poll surveyed 1,000 voters between October 25 and 28 using phone texts and automated calls, resulting in a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
Previous polling from last month showed both candidates at a standstill, each with 43% support, which seemed unusual compared to other surveys.
The dynamics of this race are fluid. While Sherrill holds a slight lead in current opinion polls, it’s a very close contest. RealClearPolitics indicates that she currently has a 3.7-point advantage over Ciatarelli, though this is a decline from a 9.3-point lead observed in early September.
It’s also worth noting that RCP’s past assessments underestimated Ciatarelli’s approval by about 5 percentage points in 2021 when he narrowly lost to Murphy.
Despite the recent momentum seen in polls, Ciatarelli is facing challenges with early voting trends. Data reveals that among early voters—both those who voted by mail and in person—54% were registered Democrats, compared to 28% who were registered Republicans. This disparity might raise some questions going forward.
