What could possibly go wrong? Negotiations are currently in progress to get the government reopened, but there’s been a refusal to consider compromises.
Whenever I see the National Guard or other federal officers in uniform patrolling the streets of D.C., I always try to be respectful. I often find myself gently asking them about their true role—what they would do if they witnessed a crime in progress? I make sure to thank them for their service. Then, I wonder how they manage to operate without pay due to the ongoing government issues. But, of course, there’s no clear answer.
In Gaza, the situation is quite fragile. President Putin has called off discussions regarding the Ukraine war, leaving it in a state of disarray. The much-anticipated Budapest summit has seemingly been tossed aside due to intractable differences over a peace deal for Ukraine. Without essential support like the Tomahawk missiles, it’s disappointing, as these could have been crucial in pressuring Russia regarding its energy infrastructure and drone capabilities to encourage a settlement.
On the topic of sanctions against Russia, there seems to be some belief from President Trump that a peace agreement might still be achievable. While his sense of optimism is commendable, it’s hard to say whether it’s based in reality. Navigating relations with “Vlad” isn’t straightforward, and Russia continues to attack Ukraine’s energy systems, causing civilian harm through drone and missile strikes.
Additionally, with China’s threats to cut off supplies, Trump might have reduced some tariffs on rare earth elements. These materials are vital for a range of American technology products.
Moreover, he’s signed a deal with Australia regarding rare earths, which, if the mining and production infrastructure is developed, could hold great promise. But, chances are, that won’t happen overnight. Even so, a meeting with Jinping could maybe lead to some sort of more coherent policy.
Trump has made remarks about fighting a undeclared war in Venezuela against President Maduro, though the U.S. hasn’t exactly excelled at regime change since World War II. Military actions aimed at drug traffickers are now extending towards the eastern Pacific, but the main drug routes actually run between Colombia and Mexico.
Will Trump embark on a new version of the old war policies? Will he attempt to land Marines in locations like Veracruz or Tijuana? And could trade negotiations with Canada end up fostering rivalries on both borders for the second time in U.S. history?
There’s frustration amongst Americans that Trump is sending substantial bailout funds to Argentina while farmers at home are struggling. There’s also the plan to import Argentine beef, intended to lower prices, which isn’t sitting well with U.S. ranchers, a constituency traditionally supportive of him.
I had lunch recently with a former senator who voiced some disappointment about how Republicans in Congress seem to have stepped back from their responsibilities, choosing instead to be on vacation at Trump’s prompting.
So, I wonder: Who will challenge Trump? His economic strategies appear quite inconsistent. Many view the military actions against drug ships in Venezuela as a violation of the law prohibiting military use for law enforcement. Also, wouldn’t capturing traffickers alive be more beneficial for gathering intelligence?
The Dow Jones and S&P indexes keep reaching new heights, which raises concerns about potential bubbles forming that might eventually burst.
Looking ahead to November 1st, if the government is still shut down, a new wave of insurance rate hikes will impact millions of Americans. A lot of them already live paycheck to paycheck and can’t manage unexpected expenses.
To put it metaphorically, it’s like a man who jumps off the Empire State Building and, as he passes the 52nd floor, states, “so far so good”. Are we in a similar scenario right now?
Harlan Ullman holds a Ph.D. and is a columnist for UPI, a senior advisor for the Atlantic Council, and the chairman of two private firms. He co-authored a forthcoming book on preventing strategic catastrophe.
