Prices for coffee are climbing faster than any other staple food item. It’s not just tariffs influencing this rise; factors like severe weather, conflicts, and active market traders are also playing a role.
Last year, coffee prices saw a remarkable increase of 18.4%, as reported in federal data from February.
In comparison, the costs of other household items, from groceries to vehicles and haircuts, haven’t come close to that significant spike, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This surge affects both coffee producers and consumers, embodying a trend that’s been escalating since the pandemic began. In 2020, the average price for a pound of roasted coffee was around $4.17, while it jumped to approximately $9.46 by 2026.
In major coffee-producing nations like Brazil and Vietnam, drought conditions in 2024 contributed to crop shortages, exacerbating the situation, as mentioned in a report.
Additionally, in July 2025, tariffs imposed during President Trump’s administration saw a 40% tax levied on Brazilian products, which only added to costs for U.S. importers, effectively pushing prices up for consumers.
The situation worsened as hedge funds and commodity traders began purchasing coffee contracts, speculating on drought impacts and tariff outcomes, according to reports.
Emory University professor Peter Roberts referred to this chaotic price behavior as “roller coaster stupidity.”
The ongoing conflict in Iran is contributing to more uncertainty, especially as potential oil shortages start affecting global markets.
These ongoing challenges are leaving small roasters and coffee shops across America feeling quite anxious.
Many are finding it tough to compete with larger brands that can manage costs better through bulk orders, or who employ staff solely to track market pricing.
“There are too many variables to keep track of,” Andrew Goff, owner of Reverie Roasters in Kansas, explained, noting his struggles to navigate market changes while handling day-to-day operations.
“I have to fix the toilet. I also have to fix the broken doorknob,” he added, indicating how overwhelmed he feels.
For years, Goff sold a 12-ounce bag of coffee for $15, but he recently increased it to $17 and plans to raise it again to $18 soon.
“I worry that raising prices will drive customers away,” he admitted.
Remarkably, Goff finds himself paying around $4.30 per pound for unroasted coffee, a stark rise from $2.41 just months before.
This shift could end up boosting his annual costs by about $200,000.
Notably, the tariffs also cost Goff more than $14,000 before the U.S. Supreme Court abolished them in February.
And it’s not just roasters feeling the pinch. Small businesses like food carts in New York are also having to adjust their prices due to the coffee crisis.
Aziz Changeji, who has operated a coffee cart in NYC for two decades, shared that his 3-pound bucket of Kirkland Columbia coffee jumped from $10 in 2020 to $22 this year, resulting in a 50-cent increase for customers.
“Everything is more expensive,” Changeji remarked.
